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LAIFC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · LAIFC (all teams)

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10th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 8–6
WLLlast 3
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.4
-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LAIFC
10th · 1.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 1.00 PPG

Silverlakes Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.1 against · 1.54 expected points)

Season so farLAIFCALBION SC Santa Monica
Position10th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-20-2-0
Points per game1.001.00
Goals for / game2.70.0
Goals against / game2.00.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L WD D
Biggest win6–0 at LA Surf Futures—
Worst loss0–3 vs FC Golden State Force—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.21+0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.09+0.47

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    ALBION SC Santa Monica average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 2.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Hard to break down
    ALBION SC Santa Monica concede only 0.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Golden State Force.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 42% / draw 27% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Fram Soccer Club sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Fram Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Santa Monica game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAIFC – ALBION SC Santa Monica) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
10th— holds 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 4 11th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th— holds 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3
Loss
0.75 PPG
12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
8.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.40) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+1.33) 2nd (1.92) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+1.33) 3rd (1.89) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.83) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.89) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+0.50) 6th (1.60) Win next game
7 AC Brea 1.50 (+0.50) 7th (1.45) Win next game
8 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.40) Win next game
9 Fram Soccer Club 1.33 (+0.33) 11th (1.31) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LAIFC to ALBION SC Santa Monica through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 1–3 0–0 LAIFC 10th LA Surf Futures 14th Fram Soccer Club 9th ALBION SC Santa Mon… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 7th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Home
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.54 1.13 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM
City SC Los Angeles
5th · 1-1-0 · GD +5
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 7
08:00 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.26 1.11 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 1.17 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 1.24 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 1.38 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.22 1.46 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.29 1.45 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.53 1.37 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.60 1.39 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
AC Brea
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.26 1.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.05 -0.11 98% 1.4
2 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 85+3 72.33 DWW +0.50 -0.19 66% 4.0
3 Rangers FC 3210 63+3 72.33 DWW +0.31 -0.13 58% 4.4
4 FC Golden State Force 3201 83+5 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.04 54% 4.6
5 City SC Los Angeles 2110 72+5 42.00 DW -0.46 +0.01 61% 4.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 62+4 31.50 WL -0.62 +0.08 24% 6.6
7 AC Brea 2101 43+1 31.50 WL -0.09 +0.04 11% 8.0
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 23-1 31.50 WL +0.78 -0.11 8% 8.5
9 Fram Soccer Club 3111 43+1 41.33 LDW -0.76 +0.19 5% 9.1
10 LAIFC 3102 86+2 31.00 WLL -0.09 +0.04 8% 8.4
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2020 00+0 21.00 DD +0.47 -0.08 7% 8.8
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4112 68-2 41.00 LWLD -0.26 +0.13 1% 10.6
13 Oaks FC 2011 38-5 10.50 LD +0.26 +0.03 0% 12.4
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.01 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.53 +0.05 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.