Central Cal Aztecs
Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · Central Cal Aztecs (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Kaiser Sports Village, Field 13 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.77 expected points)
| Season so far | Central Cal Aztecs | LA Surf LC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-0 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D | L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at FC Golden State Force | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.64 | -2.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.50 | +0.53 |
Common opponents: FC Golden State Force — we 3–1; they 0–4.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
LA Surf LC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
LA Surf LC concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–5 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
LA Surf LC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Cal Aztecs – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 9th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 20%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 2%
- 10th 1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total Futbol Academy | 3.00 (+0.67) | 1st (2.40) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Central Cal Aztecs to LA Surf LC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 15th hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
LA Surf LC 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.77 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Santa Monica 11th · 0-2-0 · GD +0 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–0 | 1.73 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Los Angeles 12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
LA Surf Futures 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.77 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM |
City SC Los Angeles 5th · 1-1-0 · GD +5 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 2.22 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Fram Soccer Club 9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1 |
Away South High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 2.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
AC Brea 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Kaiser Sports Village |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 13th · 0-1-1 · GD -5 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.17 | 2.04 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away SilverLakes Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.92 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total Futbol Academy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.05 | -0.11 | 98% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at City SC Los Angeles · Sun Nov 1 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf Futures See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Central Cal Aztecs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.50 | -0.19 | 64% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Rangers FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.31 | -0.13 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at LAIFC · Sun Nov 8 vs Los Angeles SC · Sun Nov 22 vs AC Brea See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC Golden State Force | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.45 | +0.04 | 54% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf Futures · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sun Nov 1 vs Oaks FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | City SC Los Angeles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.46 | +0.01 | 60% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.62 | +0.08 | 24% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Fram Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | AC Brea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.09 | +0.04 | 13% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fram Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 21 vs Oaks FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Los Angeles SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.78 | -0.11 | 9% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Oaks FC · Sun Nov 8 at Rangers FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Fram Soccer Club | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.76 | +0.19 | 4% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Brea · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Mar 6 at FC Golden State Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | LAIFC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.09 | +0.04 | 8% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Rangers FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 | 1.00 | DD | +0.47 | -0.08 | 6% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAIFC · Sun Oct 25 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.26 | +0.13 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Oaks FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.26 | +0.03 | 0% | 12.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | LA Surf Futures | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.01 | +0.19 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | LA Surf LC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.53 | +0.05 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Central Cal Aztecs · Sun Nov 1 at Total Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.