TableChase Clubs

LA Surf Futures

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · LA Surf Futures (all teams)

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15th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-14 goal diff · 2–16
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.5
-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:50 AM

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LA Surf Futures
15th · 0.00 PPG
at
FC Golden State Force
12th · 0.00 PPG

Bell Gardens High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.7 against · 0.61 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf FuturesFC Golden State Force
Position15th12th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-30-0-3
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game0.70.7
Goals against / game5.31.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L LL L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–9 vs LAIFC2–3 vs Central Cal Aztecs
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.38-0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.03-0.17

Common opponents: LAIFC — we 0–9; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 vs LAIFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:50 AM at Bell Gardens High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Los Angeles SC sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Los Angeles SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf Futures – FC Golden State Force) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
12th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 4 14th▲ up 1
Draw
0.25 PPG
13th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 18%
  15. 15th 68%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.49) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.22) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+3.00) 5th (2.02) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Rangers FC 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.17) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 LAIFC 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (2.10) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 6th (1.92) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 Fram Soccer Club 2.00 (+2.00) 8th (1.39) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.23) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 Central Cal Aztecs 1.33 (+1.33) 7th (1.47) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+1.00) 12th (0.86) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
11 LA Surf LC 1.00 (+1.00) 14th (0.71) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
12 FC Golden State Force 0.00 (+0.00) 11th (0.87) Already ahead
13 City SC Los Angeles 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (0.95) Already ahead
14 Los Angeles SC 0.00 (+0.00) 13th (0.74) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf Futures to FC Golden State Force through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-8.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–9 1–0 1–1 3–2 LA Surf Futures 15th LAIFC 5th Central Cal Aztecs 9th FC Golden State For… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.25 · 2nd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:50 AM
FC Golden State Force
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -3
Away
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.61 0.15 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:15 PM
Total Futbol Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Home
Silverlakes in Norco
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.24 0.17 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 0.20 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.19 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.10 0.30 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.88 0.37 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.13 0.34 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 0.35 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 0.44 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.04 0.41 Upside
Sat May 22
05:00 PM
AC Brea
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–7 0.03 0.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 97% 1.7
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 80% 3.1
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 48% 4.5
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 72% 3.5
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 63% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 36% 5.0
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 1% 8.2
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 1% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 3% 7.6
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.3
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.4
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.