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ALBION SC Santa Monica

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Santa Monica (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+6 goal diff · 7–1
WWlast 2
48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
-0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 3.00 PPG
at
LAIFC
5th · 2.33 PPG

Silverlakes Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.1 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa MonicaLAIFC
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-02-1-0
Points per game3.002.33
Goals for / game3.53.7
Goals against / game0.50.3
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W WD W W
Biggest win6–1 vs Fram Soccer Club9–0 at LA Surf Futures
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.04+1.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.59-0.88

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAIFC score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    LAIFC concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:15 PM at Silverlakes Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Oaks FC sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Oaks FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Monica – LAIFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
48% top 4
52% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 23%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.49) Win next game
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.22) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Monica to LAIFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–1 5–1 0–9 ALBION SC Santa Mon… 3rd Fram Soccer Club 7th LA Surf Futures 15th LAIFC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 10th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
LAIFC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +10
Away
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 2.36 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:30 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +12
Home
John Adams MS
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.33 2.10 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 2.04 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:15 PM
AC Brea
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.75 1.82 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.58 1.93 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 1.97 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 1.90 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 1.97 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–1 2.82 2.04 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.12 1.97 Upside
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 2.02 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 96% 1.8
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 80% 3.1
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 48% 4.4
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 70% 3.6
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 64% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 37% 5.0
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 2% 8.1
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 0% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 2% 7.7
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.5
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.4
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.4
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.