TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Los Angeles

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Los Angeles (all teams)

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10th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-8 goal diff · 2–10
LWLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.5
+0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:55 PM

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ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0.00 PPG

Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School, Cantwell Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.8 against · 1.50 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Los AngelesLos Angeles SC
Position10th14th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-20-0-2
Points per game1.000.00
Goals for / game0.70.5
Goals against / game3.34.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L W LL L
Biggest win2–1 at LA Surf Futures—
Worst loss0–6 at Oaks FC0–6 vs Total Futbol Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.23-1.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.29+0.40

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy — we 0–3; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Los Angeles SC average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 1 of 2.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Los Angeles SC concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–6 vs Total Futbol Academy.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Total Futbol Academy, 0–6 at Oaks FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 21% / loss 36%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Central Cal Aztecs sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Central Cal Aztecs on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Los Angeles – Los Angeles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Win
1.50 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 19%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.49) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.22) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (2.02) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Rangers FC 3.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.17) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LAIFC 2.33 (+1.33) 4th (2.10) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.92) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Fram Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.39) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+0.50) 9th (1.23) Win next game
9 Central Cal Aztecs 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.47) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Los Angeles to Los Angeles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 6–0 2–1 1–5 2–1 ALBION SC Los Angel… 10th Total Futbol Academy 6th LA Surf Futures 15th Fram Soccer Club 7th Los Angeles SC 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 6th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
05:55 PM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.50 1.13 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
05:55 PM
FC Golden State Force
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.14 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.68 1.06 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
LAIFC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–3 0.38 0.96 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
AC Brea
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.18 0.87 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.32 0.81 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.50 0.88 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.93 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.01 0.89 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.04 0.90 Upside
Tue May 25
04:30 PM
Rangers FC
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.28 0.86 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 96% 1.8
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 80% 3.1
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 48% 4.4
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 70% 3.6
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 64% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 37% 5.0
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 2% 8.1
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 0% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 2% 7.7
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.5
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.4
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.4
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.