TableChase Clubs

LA Surf LC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · LA Surf LC (all teams)

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11th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-12 goal diff · 1–13
LLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.7
+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LA Surf LC
11th · 1.00 PPG
at
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1.33 PPG

Kaiser Sports Village, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.9 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf LCCentral Cal Aztecs
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-21-1-1
Points per game1.001.33
Goals for / game0.31.3
Goals against / game4.31.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W L LD W L
Biggest win1–0 vs FC Golden State Force3–2 at FC Golden State Force
Worst loss0–10 vs AC Brea0–2 vs Rangers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.81-0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.47+0.72

Common opponents: FC Golden State Force — we 1–0; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–10 vs AC Brea, 0–3 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Kaiser Sports Village.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Los Angeles sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Los Angeles on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Cal Aztecs game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf LC – Central Cal Aztecs) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG
9th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 24%
  14. 14th 25%
  15. 15th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.49) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.22) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (2.02) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Rangers FC 3.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.17) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LAIFC 2.33 (+1.33) 4th (2.10) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.92) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Fram Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.39) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+0.50) 9th (1.23) Win next game
9 Central Cal Aztecs 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.47) A point next game
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+0.00) 12th (0.86) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf LC to Central Cal Aztecs through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 2–3 0–1 1–1 0–3 0–4 2–0 LA Surf LC 11th FC Golden State For… 12th ALBION SC Antelope … 8th LAIFC 5th Rangers FC 4th Central Cal Aztecs 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 9th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.49 0.87 Upside
Sat Oct 31
02:30 PM
Total Futbol Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Away
Don Bosco Tech · turf
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.74 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:15 PM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
silverlakes
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.04 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.32 0.72 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–6 0.08 0.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.25 0.60 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.28 0.57 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.29 0.63 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.39 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 0.72 Upside
Sun May 23
01:00 PM
Fram Soccer Club
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
San Marino High School
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.68 0.71 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 96% 1.8
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 78% 3.2
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 50% 4.4
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 72% 3.5
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 65% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 35% 5.1
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 2% 8.1
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 0% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 2% 7.6
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.4
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.4
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.