TableChase Clubs

Central Cal Aztecs

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · Central Cal Aztecs (all teams)

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9th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
-1 goal diff · 4–5
LWDlast 3
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6
+0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1.33 PPG
vs
LA Surf LC
11th · 1.00 PPG

Kaiser Sports Village, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.1 against · 2.37 expected points)

Season so farCentral Cal AztecsLA Surf LC
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-11-0-2
Points per game1.331.00
Goals for / game1.30.3
Goals against / game1.74.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D W LW L L
Biggest win3–2 at FC Golden State Force1–0 vs FC Golden State Force
Worst loss0–2 vs Rangers FC0–10 vs AC Brea
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.00-1.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.72+0.47

Common opponents: FC Golden State Force — we 3–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf LC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LA Surf LC concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–10 vs AC Brea.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Rangers FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Antelope Valley on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Cal Aztecs – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.75 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Win
1.75 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
1.25 PPG
9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
7.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 31%
  8. 8th 24%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.49) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+1.67) 2nd (2.22) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+1.67) 5th (2.02) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 Rangers FC 3.00 (+1.67) 3rd (2.17) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 LAIFC 2.33 (+1.00) 4th (2.10) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+0.67) 6th (1.92) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 Fram Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.67) 8th (1.39) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+0.17) 9th (1.23) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Central Cal Aztecs to LA Surf LC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
0 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 0–1 1–1 1–0 0–2 4–0 3–0 Central Cal Aztecs 9th FC Golden State For… 12th LAIFC 5th Rangers FC 4th ALBION SC Antelope … 8th LA Surf LC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 15th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
LA Surf LC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.37 1.59 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.47 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.59 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.52 1.72 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 1.76 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.41 1.72 Upside
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
South High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.33 1.68 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
AC Brea
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 1.58 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.50 1.49 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.44 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Away
SilverLakes Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.89 1.47 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 97% 1.7
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 80% 3.1
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 48% 4.5
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 72% 3.5
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 63% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 36% 5.0
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 1% 8.2
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 1% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 3% 7.6
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.3
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.4
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.