TableChase Clubs

AC Brea

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U13 · 15 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 18 minutes ago.
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1st
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 14–1
WWlast 2
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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AC Brea
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Fram Soccer Club
7th · 2.00 PPG

South High School, Grass Soccer Field ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.8 against · 2.47 expected points)

Season so farAC BreaFram Soccer Club
Position1st7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-02-0-1
Points per game3.002.00
Goals for / game7.02.7
Goals against / game0.52.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W WW L W
Biggest win10–0 at LA Surf LC5–1 at LA Surf Futures
Worst loss—1–6 at ALBION SC Santa Monica
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.47-0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.95

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass Soccer Field" at South High School.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at South High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea – Fram Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 5 6th▼ down 5 7th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

59% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
1.7 average finish
  1. 1st 59%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea to Fram Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+8.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 6–0 1–2 AC Brea 1st Total Futbol Academy 6th Los Angeles SC 14th Fram Soccer Club 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 13th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
South High School · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
4–1 2.47 2.82 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:15 PM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.09 2.64 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
01:10 PM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +12
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 1.97 2.51 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
08:15 AM
Rangers FC
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.62 2.36 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.43 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 2.47 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.77 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.52 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
LAIFC
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 2.45 Swing game
Sat May 22
05:00 PM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–0 2.96 2.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -0.29 -0.10 97% 1.7
2 Oaks FC 2200 153+12 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.05 78% 3.1
3 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 71+6 63.00 WW -0.59 +0.04 49% 4.5
4 Rangers FC 2200 60+6 63.00 WW -0.17 -0.04 72% 3.5
5 LAIFC 3210 111+10 72.33 WWD -0.88 +0.17 63% 3.9
6 Total Futbol Academy 3201 104+6 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.05 36% 5.0
7 Fram Soccer Club 3201 88+0 62.00 WLW -0.95 +0.29 2% 8.2
8 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 34-1 31.50 WL -0.17 +0.11 1% 9.1
9 Central Cal Aztecs 3111 45-1 41.33 LWD +0.72 -0.16 2% 7.6
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 210-8 31.00 LWL +0.29 +0.09 0% 11.7
11 LA Surf LC 3102 113-12 31.00 LLW +0.47 +0.05 0% 12.7
12 FC Golden State Force 3003 25-3 00.00 LLL -0.17 +0.12 0% 11.3
13 City SC Los Angeles 2002 310-7 00.00 LL +1.55 -0.14 0% 10.9
14 Los Angeles SC 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.40 +0.07 0% 12.3
15 LA Surf Futures 3003 216-14 00.00 LLL -0.03 +0.25 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.