Denver Kickers Sports Club

Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U14 · 19 teams · Denver Kickers Sports Club (all teams)

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9th

2-0-2 record · 4 played

1.50 points per game

+7 goal diff · 14–7

WLWLlast 4

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9

-0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:30 PM

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Denver Kickers Sports Club
9th · 1.50 PPG

Colorado Rush
5th · 2.25 PPG

Stargate Charter School, Stargate West ↗

35% 21% 45%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Denver Kickers Sports Club	Colorado Rush
Position	9th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-2	3-0-1
Points per game	1.50	2.25
Goals for / game	3.5	2.0
Goals against / game	1.8	1.0
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W L W	W W W L
Biggest win	8–0 vs ALBION SC Denver	3–0 vs ALBION SC Boulder County
Worst loss	0–3 vs ALBION SC Boulder County	0–3 at Colorado United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.72	+0.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.73	-0.39

Common opponents: ALBION SC Denver — we 8–0; they 2–0. ALBION SC Boulder County — we 0–3; they 3–0. City SC NOCO — we 3–0; they 3–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Colorado Rush concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs ALBION SC Boulder County.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Colorado Rush have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Stargate Charter School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
El Paso Surf sit 8th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above El Paso Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Denver Kickers Sports Club – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.20 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Win 1.80 PPG	6th▲ up 3	6th▲ up 3	7th▲ up 2
Draw 1.40 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Loss 1.20 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

7.9 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 3%
5th 8%
6th 16%
7th 20%
8th 17%
9th 12%
10th 9%
11th 6%
12th 4%
13th 2%
14th 1%
15th <1%
16th
17th
18th
19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Colorado Rush - COS	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.65)	72 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 64 for their projection
2	Utah Athletic (North)	3.00 (+1.50)	4th (2.12)	72 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3	ALBION SC Utah	2.40 (+0.90)	2nd (2.23)	57 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
4	Colorado United	2.40 (+0.90)	3rd (2.15)	57 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
5	Colorado Rush	2.25 (+0.75)	6th (1.76)	53 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6	Utah Athletic	2.25 (+0.75)	8th (1.58)	53 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7	Colorado Elevation FC	1.80 (+0.30)	10th (1.39)	Win next game
8	El Paso Surf	1.75 (+0.25)	5th (2.03)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Denver Kickers Sports Club to Colorado Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

2 even

5 favour them

-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 11th hardest of 19

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM	Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4	Away Stargate Charter School	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.24	1.45	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Colorado United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10	Away Cornerstone Park · turf	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.88	1.35	Upside
Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM	Colorado Storm 18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19	Home Wheat Ridge High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.84	1.57	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 02:45 PM	Colorado Rush - COS 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24	Away Mountain Lion Stadium · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.34	1.41	Upside
Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Denver 19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20	Away TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–1	2.74	1.56	Bank it
Sun Jan 24 01:00 PM	Colorado Storm 18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19	Away Douglas County Fairgrounds	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	4–1	2.72	1.68	Bank it
Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM	City SC NOCO 11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2	Away TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.62	1.67	Swing game
Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM	Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4	Away TBD	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.24	1.64	Upside
Sun Feb 7 01:00 PM	ALBION SC Las Vegas 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Aventura Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.63	1.64	Swing game
Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM	Colorado Elevation FC 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5	Away TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	3–2	1.92	1.66	Swing game
Sat Feb 13 12:00 AM	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.63	1.65	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Boulder County 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3	Away TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	1.66	Swing game
Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM	Colorado Rush - COS 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24	Away TBD	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–3	0.34	1.58	Upside
Sat Feb 27 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Denver 19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20	Home TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	4–0	2.85	1.65	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM	Colorado Storm 18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19	Home TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.84	1.71	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM	Colorado United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10	Home TBD	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.18	1.69	Upside
Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM	Colorado Elevation FC 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5	Home TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.22	1.71	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM	City SC NOCO 11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2	Home TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.93	1.72	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 03:00 PM	Colorado United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10	Away Cornerstone Park · turf	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.88	1.69	Upside
Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM	Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4	Home TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–1	1.54	1.68	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Boulder County 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3	Home TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.00	1.69	Swing game
Sun May 2 12:00 AM	Colorado Rush - COS 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.53	1.65	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Colorado Rush - COS

+24

3.00

WWWWW

-0.91

-0.22

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado United (4th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	6–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 15 at City SC NOCO · Sat Dec 5 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–1	87%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Colorado United (4th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado United (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun May 2	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun May 2	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat May 8	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun May 9	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	3–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Athletic (North)

3.00

+1.37

-0.46

62%

4.2

W	Sat Oct 10	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	78%
·	Tue May 25	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Utah

+11

2.40

LWWWW

-0.52

+0.04

78%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	70%
·	Tue May 25	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado United

+10

2.40

WWLWW

-0.01

-0.22

75%

3.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 7 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Nov 14 vs City SC NOCO See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun May 2	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat May 8	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

2.25

LWWW

-0.39

+0.01

11%

6.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 16	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado United (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Nov 14 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Elevation FC See all 22 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	56%
·	Fri Dec 25	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado United (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–0	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Athletic

2.25

WWWL

-0.43

+0.24

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Elevation FC

-5

1.80

LLWWW

+0.39

-0.14

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Colorado United (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–6

Next: Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Boulder County · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Colorado United (4th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Paso Surf

+12

1.75

DWLW

-0.94

-0.07

55%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	10–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	5–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado United (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 1	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun May 2	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Denver Kickers Sports Club

1.50

WLWL

-0.73

+0.01

7.9

L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	8–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado United · Sat Nov 14 vs Colorado Storm See all 22 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado United (4th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Arizona

1.20

LWLLW

-0.61

-0.05

11.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat May 1	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 2	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

City SC NOCO

1.17

WLDLL

-0.62

+0.17

11.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	4–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Colorado United · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Boulder County

-3

0.80

WLDLL

+1.03

-0.19

12.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Colorado United (4th)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush See all 21 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 2	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado United (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	2–0	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AZ SandSharks

-13

0.67

DLLLL

+0.68

-0.24

15.9

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inter Utah SC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado United (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	0–3	4%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Las Vegas

0.00

—

+0.22

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Las Vegas

0.00

—

+0.33

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Villarreal Las Vegas Academy

0.00

—

+0.03

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Jan 30 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Dec 6	at	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	ALBION SC Las Vegas (14th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Inter Utah SC (17th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Inter Utah SC

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.68

+0.13

17.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	1–10
L	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Utah Athletic (6th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AZ SandSharks · Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AZ SandSharks (13th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Utah Athletic (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	BVBIA Las Vegas (15th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Utah Athletic (North) (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Villarreal Las Vegas Academy (16th)	1–3	17%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Utah (3rd)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm

-19

0.00

LLLL

+0.98

+0.07

17.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Colorado United (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	2–4

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Fri Dec 25 vs Colorado Rush See all 22 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–4	8%
·	Fri Dec 25	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Fri Dec 25	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	BVBIA Arizona (10th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado United (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	ALBION SC Denver (19th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Colorado United (4th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun May 2	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	1–2	14%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Denver

-20

0.00

LLLL

+1.06

+0.12

18.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–4
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado United · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 22 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Colorado United (4th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–2	12%
·	Fri Dec 25	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	City SC NOCO (11th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado Storm (18th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Colorado United (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Denver Kickers Sports Club (9th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	City SC NOCO (11th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	El Paso Surf (8th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	AZ SandSharks (13th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Rush - COS (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Storm (18th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	ALBION SC Boulder County (12th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Colorado Elevation FC (7th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	Colorado United (4th)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.