TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Boulder County

Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U14 · 19 teams · ALBION SC Boulder County (all teams)

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12th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-3 goal diff · 5–8
WLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.2
+1.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC Boulder County
12th · 0.80 PPG
vs
Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 1.80 PPG

Pleasant View Soccer Complex, Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Boulder CountyColorado Elevation FC
Position12th7th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-33-0-2
Points per game0.801.80
Goals for / game1.02.2
Goals against / game1.63.2
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L D L WW W W L L
Biggest win3–0 at Denver Kickers Sports Club3–0 vs Colorado Storm
Worst loss0–3 at Colorado Rush1–6 at Colorado Rush - COS
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.21-0.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.03+0.39

Common opponents: Denver Kickers Sports Club — we 3–0; they 4–3. Colorado Rush - COS — we 1–2; they 1–6. City SC NOCO — we 0–0; they 3–2. Colorado United — we 1–3; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Colorado Elevation FC concede 3.2/game; worst result 1–6 at Colorado Rush - COS.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at City SC NOCO, 0–3 at Colorado Rush.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 21% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Colorado Elevation FC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Elevation FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Boulder County – Colorado Elevation FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.17 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
1.17 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.83 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 13%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado Rush - COS 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.65) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 66 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Utah Athletic (North) 3.00 (+2.20) 4th (2.12) 74 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Utah 2.40 (+1.60) 2nd (2.23) 59 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
4 Colorado United 2.40 (+1.60) 3rd (2.15) 59 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
5 Colorado Rush 2.25 (+1.45) 6th (1.76) 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
6 Utah Athletic 2.25 (+1.45) 8th (1.58) 55 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
7 Colorado Elevation FC 1.80 (+1.00) 10th (1.39) 43 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
8 El Paso Surf 1.75 (+0.95) 5th (2.03) 42 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
9 Denver Kickers Sports Club 1.50 (+0.70) 7th (1.65) 35 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
10 BVBIA Arizona 1.20 (+0.40) 11th (1.34) 28 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
11 City SC NOCO 1.17 (+0.37) 13th (1.28) 27 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Boulder County to Colorado Elevation FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 2–3 3–0 3–4 1–3 5–0 1–2 6–1 5–0 0–3 0–3 0–3 4–2 3–1 0–5 0–3 9–0 ALBION SC Boulder C… 12th City SC NOCO 11th Denver Kickers Spor… 9th Colorado United 4th Colorado Rush - COS 1st Colorado Rush 5th Colorado Storm 18th Colorado Elevation … 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 29 Sep 13 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 15th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM		 Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
Pleasant View Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–1 1.60 0.93 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 ALBION SC Denver
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20		 Away
Parkfield Lake Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–0 2.27 1.13 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–1 0.87 1.09 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.32 1.12 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Denver
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.46 1.25 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush - COS
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.36 1.17 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 City SC NOCO
11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.12 1.17 Upside
Sat Feb 20
12:00 AM		 Denver Kickers Sports Club
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.06 1.16 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Colorado Storm
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 2–0 2.43 1.25 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–1 1.60 1.27 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM		 BVBIA Arizona
10th · 2-0-3 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.17 1.27 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 El Paso Surf
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.55 1.22 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush - COS
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.24 1.17 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.08 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM		 Colorado United
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.79 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 City SC NOCO
11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.37 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Denver
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–0 2.27 1.21 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Denver Kickers Sports Club
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.81 1.19 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Colorado Storm
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.22 1.23 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:00 PM		 Colorado United
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
Cornerstone Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.59 1.21 Upside
Tue May 25
09:00 AM		 Colorado Storm
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19		 Home
Pleasant View Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 2–0 2.43 1.25 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado Rush - COS 5500 262+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.22 100% 1.1
2 Utah Athletic (North) 2200 42+2 63.00 WW +1.37 -0.46 64% 4.2
3 ALBION SC Utah 5401 132+11 122.40 LWWWW -0.52 +0.04 78% 3.3
4 Colorado United 5401 166+10 122.40 WWLWW -0.01 -0.22 76% 3.6
5 Colorado Rush 4301 84+4 92.25 LWWW -0.39 +0.01 11% 6.9
6 Utah Athletic 4301 87+1 92.25 WWWL -0.43 +0.24 6% 8.9
7 Colorado Elevation FC 5302 1116-5 91.80 LLWWW +0.39 -0.14 0% 10.9
8 El Paso Surf 4211 164+12 71.75 DWLW -0.94 -0.07 52% 4.6
9 Denver Kickers Sports Club 4202 147+7 61.50 WLWL -0.73 +0.01 4% 8.0
10 BVBIA Arizona 5203 98+1 61.20 LWLLW -0.61 -0.05 0% 11.3
11 City SC NOCO 6213 1311+2 71.17 WLDLL -0.62 +0.17 0% 11.9
12 ALBION SC Boulder County 5113 58-3 40.80 WLDLL +1.03 -0.19 0% 12.2
13 AZ SandSharks 6114 316-13 40.67 DLLLL +0.68 -0.24 0% 15.9
14 ALBION SC Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.22 ——
15 BVBIA Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.33 ——
16 Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——
17 Inter Utah SC 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.68 +0.13 0% 17.7
18 Colorado Storm 4004 221-19 00.00 LLLL +0.98 +0.07 0% 17.9
19 ALBION SC Denver 4004 020-20 00.00 LLLL +1.06 +0.12 0% 18.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.