Colorado Storm
Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U14 · 19 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:00 PM
Wheat Ridge High School, Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.1 for, 5.2 against · 0.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Colorado Storm | Denver Kickers Sports Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-4 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | L W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 8–0 vs ALBION SC Denver |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs Colorado Rush - COS | 0–3 vs ALBION SC Boulder County |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.42 | +0.72 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.98 | -0.73 |
Common opponents: City SC NOCO — we 2–4; they 3–0. Colorado Elevation FC — we 0–3; they 3–4.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Denver Kickers Sports Club score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Colorado Elevation FC, 0–9 vs Colorado Rush - COS, 0–5 vs Colorado United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Wheat Ridge High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Inter Utah SC sit 17th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Inter Utah SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Denver Kickers Sports Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm – Denver Kickers Sports Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
19th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.60 PPG |
14th▲ up 4 | 14th▲ up 4 | 15th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
14th▲ up 4 | 14th▲ up 4 | 16th▲ up 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
18th— holds | 18th— holds | 19th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we fall to at least 19th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th <1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th 6%
- 17th 31%
- 18th 33%
- 19th 29%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Rush - COS | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.65) | 78 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 70 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 3.00 (+3.00) | 4th (2.12) | 78 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Utah | 2.40 (+2.40) | 2nd (2.23) | 63 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection |
| 4 | Colorado United | 2.40 (+2.40) | 3rd (2.15) | 63 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection |
| 5 | Colorado Rush | 2.25 (+2.25) | 6th (1.76) | 59 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 6 | Utah Athletic | 2.25 (+2.25) | 8th (1.58) | 59 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
| 7 | Colorado Elevation FC | 1.80 (+1.80) | 10th (1.39) | 47 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 8 | El Paso Surf | 1.75 (+1.75) | 5th (2.03) | 46 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection |
| 9 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 1.50 (+1.50) | 7th (1.65) | 39 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 10 | BVBIA Arizona | 1.20 (+1.20) | 11th (1.34) | 32 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 11 | City SC NOCO | 1.17 (+1.17) | 13th (1.28) | 31 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 12 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0.80 (+0.80) | 15th (1.25) | 21 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 13 | AZ SandSharks | 0.67 (+0.67) | 16th (0.77) | 18 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 14 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0.00 (+0.00) | 12th (1.31) | Already ahead |
| 15 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0.00 (+0.00) | 14th (1.27) | Already ahead |
| 16 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 17 | Inter Utah SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 17th (0.40) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
11 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Colorado Storm to Denver Kickers Sports Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.07 · 7th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Denver Kickers Sports Club 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away Wheat Ridge High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.02 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 02:00 PM |
Colorado Elevation FC 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away South Suburban Parks & Rec (SSPR): David A. Lo |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.35 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Fri Dec 25 04:00 PM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home Douglas County Fairgrounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Fri Dec 25 08:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 01:00 PM |
Colorado Rush - COS 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24 |
Home Douglas County Fairgrounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 01:00 PM |
Denver Kickers Sports Club 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7 |
Home Douglas County Fairgrounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.21 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM |
City SC NOCO 11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.28 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.19 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush - COS 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
Denver Kickers Sports Club 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
AZ SandSharks 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -13 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
BVBIA Arizona 10th · 2-0-3 · GD +1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Colorado Elevation FC 7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM |
Colorado United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Cornerstone Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Denver 19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20 |
Home Douglas County Fairgrounds |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 0.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Colorado United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.13 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
City SC NOCO 11th · 2-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.30 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.61 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Boulder County 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away Pleasant View Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Colorado Rush - COS | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | +24 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.91 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 15 at City SC NOCO · Sat Dec 5 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic (North) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | +1.37 | -0.46 | 63% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Utah | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.52 | +0.04 | 79% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado United | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.01 | -0.22 | 76% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 7 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Nov 14 vs City SC NOCO See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Rush | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.39 | +0.01 | 11% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Nov 14 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Elevation FC See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.43 | +0.24 | 6% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Colorado Elevation FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.39 | -0.14 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Boulder County · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | El Paso Surf | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 7 | 1.75 | DWLW | -0.94 | -0.07 | 52% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.73 | +0.01 | 5% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado United · Sat Nov 14 vs Colorado Storm See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | BVBIA Arizona | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -0.61 | -0.05 | 1% | 11.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | City SC NOCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 7 | 1.17 | WLDLL | -0.62 | +0.17 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Colorado United · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | WLDLL | +1.03 | -0.19 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Denver · Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | AZ SandSharks | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLLL | +0.68 | -0.24 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inter Utah SC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.22 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.33 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.03 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Jan 30 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Inter Utah SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.68 | +0.13 | 0% | 17.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AZ SandSharks · Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Colorado Storm | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.98 | +0.07 | 0% | 17.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Fri Dec 25 vs Colorado Rush See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | ALBION SC Denver | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.06 | +0.12 | 0% | 18.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado United · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.