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City SC NOCO

Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U14 · 19 teams · City SC NOCO (all teams)

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11th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
+2 goal diff · 13–11
WLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.0
-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 09:00 AM

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City SC NOCO
11th · 1.17 PPG
at
Colorado United
4th · 2.40 PPG

Cornerstone Park, Turf #4 ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.9 against · 0.63 expected points)

Season so farCity SC NOCOColorado United
Position11th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-34-0-1
Points per game1.172.40
Goals for / game2.23.2
Goals against / game1.81.2
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L D L WW W L W W
Biggest win6–0 vs ALBION SC Denver5–0 at Colorado Elevation FC
Worst loss0–3 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club0–5 at Colorado Rush - COS
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.01+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.62-0.01

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 4–2; they 5–0. ALBION SC Boulder County — we 0–0; they 3–1. Colorado Rush — we 1–3; they 3–0. Colorado Elevation FC — we 2–3; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Colorado United score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club, 0–0 vs ALBION SC Boulder County.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Cornerstone Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    BVBIA Arizona sit 10th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above BVBIA Arizona on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC NOCO – Colorado United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.43 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.14 PPG		 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG		 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado Rush - COS 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.65) 71 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 63 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Utah Athletic (North) 3.00 (+1.83) 4th (2.12) 71 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Utah 2.40 (+1.23) 2nd (2.23) 56 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Colorado United 2.40 (+1.23) 3rd (2.15) 56 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
5 Colorado Rush 2.25 (+1.08) 6th (1.76) 52 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 Utah Athletic 2.25 (+1.08) 8th (1.58) 52 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
7 Colorado Elevation FC 1.80 (+0.63) 10th (1.39) 40 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
8 El Paso Surf 1.75 (+0.58) 5th (2.03) 39 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
9 Denver Kickers Sports Club 1.50 (+0.33) 7th (1.65) 32 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
10 BVBIA Arizona 1.20 (+0.03) 11th (1.34) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link City SC NOCO to Colorado United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
12 favour them
-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–3 4–2 0–5 1–3 0–3 2–3 0–5 1–6 5–0 3–0 6–0 0–2 0–9 3–0 1–2 City SC NOCO 11th ALBION SC Boulder C… 12th Colorado Storm 18th Colorado Rush 5th Colorado Elevation … 7th ALBION SC Denver 19th Colorado Rush - COS 1st Colorado United 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 10th 19th Aug 29 Sep 13 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 4th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Colorado United
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
Cornerstone Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.63 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Colorado Rush - COS
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
Mountain View High School_Colorado · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.36 1.00 Upside
Sat Jan 23
02:00 PM		 Colorado United
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Away
Cornerstone Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.63 0.96 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Denver
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.66 1.13 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM		 Denver Kickers Sports Club
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.19 1.13 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Colorado Storm
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–1 2.63 1.26 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
01:00 PM		 ALBION SC Las Vegas
14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
Aventura Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–2 1.26 1.26 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.20 1.25 Upside
Sun Feb 7
10:30 AM		 BVBIA Las Vegas
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
Chaparral Highschool · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–2 1.26 1.25 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Boulder County
12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.65 1.28 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.82 1.31 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
12:00 AM		 Colorado United
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.28 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Denver
19th · 0-0-4 · GD -20		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 1.35 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush - COS
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–3 0.23 1.29 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Colorado Elevation FC
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 1.30 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM		 Colorado Rush
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.94 1.29 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Boulder County
12th · 1-1-3 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.39 1.29 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Denver Kickers Sports Club
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +7		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.89 1.27 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Colorado Storm
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -19		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 1.32 Bank it
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 Colorado Rush - COS
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
Mountain View High School_Colorado · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.36 1.28 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado Rush - COS 5500 262+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.91 -0.22 100% 1.2
2 Utah Athletic (North) 2200 42+2 63.00 WW +1.37 -0.46 63% 4.2
3 ALBION SC Utah 5401 132+11 122.40 LWWWW -0.52 +0.04 78% 3.3
4 Colorado United 5401 166+10 122.40 WWLWW -0.01 -0.22 77% 3.6
5 Colorado Rush 4301 84+4 92.25 LWWW -0.39 +0.01 11% 6.9
6 Utah Athletic 4301 87+1 92.25 WWWL -0.43 +0.24 7% 8.7
7 Colorado Elevation FC 5302 1116-5 91.80 LLWWW +0.39 -0.14 0% 11.0
8 El Paso Surf 4211 164+12 71.75 DWLW -0.94 -0.07 53% 4.6
9 Denver Kickers Sports Club 4202 147+7 61.50 WLWL -0.73 +0.01 4% 7.9
10 BVBIA Arizona 5203 98+1 61.20 LWLLW -0.61 -0.05 0% 11.2
11 City SC NOCO 6213 1311+2 71.17 WLDLL -0.62 +0.17 0% 12.0
12 ALBION SC Boulder County 5113 58-3 40.80 WLDLL +1.03 -0.19 0% 12.2
13 AZ SandSharks 6114 316-13 40.67 DLLLL +0.68 -0.24 0% 15.9
14 ALBION SC Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.22 ——
15 BVBIA Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.33 ——
16 Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——
17 Inter Utah SC 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.68 +0.13 0% 17.7
18 Colorado Storm 4004 221-19 00.00 LLLL +0.98 +0.07 0% 17.8
19 ALBION SC Denver 4004 020-20 00.00 LLLL +1.06 +0.12 0% 18.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.