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Los Angeles SC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 15 teams · Los Angeles SC (all teams)

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7th
1-0-1 record · 2 played
1.50 points per game
-1 goal diff · 4–5
LWlast 2
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
-0.95 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Los Angeles SC
7th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Fremont Park, Fremont Park (9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.3 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so farLos Angeles SCTotal Futbol Academy
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-12-0-1
Points per game1.502.00
Goals for / game2.02.0
Goals against / game2.51.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W LW W L
Biggest win3–1 at ALBION SC Los Angeles4–2 at Laguna United
Worst loss1–4 at ALBION SC Riverside1–2 vs ALBION SC San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.25+0.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.95+0.98

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Total Futbol Academy concede only 1.3/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Oaks FC sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Oaks FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Los Angeles SC – Total Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 7
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 3 4th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.33 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 12th▼ down 5
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2.71 (+1.21) 1st (2.73) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego 2.50 (+1.00) 2nd (2.45) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.87) Win next game
4 Chula Vista FC 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.54) Win next game
5 Reds FC 1.75 (+0.25) 3rd (1.95) A point next game
6 Oaks FC 1.50 (+0.00) 6th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Los Angeles SC to Total Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–4 2–4 Los Angeles SC 7th ALBION SC Riverside 10th Laguna United 12th Total Futbol Academy 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 2nd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Fremont Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 1.39 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +35
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.15 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -24
Home
Charter Oak High School · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 1.39 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
10:30 AM
Chula Vista FC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
Charter Oak High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.40 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.69 1.30 Upside
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Fremont Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.05 1.39 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
Reds FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–3 0.72 1.32 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.91 1.38 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.12 1.45 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–4 0.35 1.35 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 1.35 Upside
Thu May 27
09:00 AM
Oaks FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Charter Oak High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.34 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 7610 438+35 192.71 WWDWW -0.12 -0.51 100% 1.1
2 City SC - San Diego 4310 216+15 102.50 WWDW +0.33 -0.44 98% 2.1
3 Total Futbol Academy 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.98 -0.42 47% 4.8
4 Chula Vista FC 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL +0.09 -0.08 13% 6.9
5 Reds FC 4211 1510+5 71.75 WLDW +0.70 -0.49 69% 4.1
6 Oaks FC 2101 108+2 31.50 WL +0.50 -0.14 17% 6.7
7 Los Angeles SC 2101 45-1 31.50 LW -0.95 +0.09 4% 8.3
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3111 82+6 41.33 WDL +0.08 -0.18 46% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.50 -0.41 5% 8.5
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 713-6 31.00 WLL +0.13 -0.07 1% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 28-6 31.00 LWL -0.08 +0.00 0% 10.9
12 Laguna United 4103 719-12 30.75 LLLW +1.27 -0.50 0% 11.2
13 City SC Los Angeles 4103 226-24 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.04 0% 14.4
14 FC Golden State Force 3003 15-4 00.00 LLL -1.48 +0.35 0% 13.0
15 LA Surf Futures 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.43 -0.04 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.