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Total Futbol Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 15 teams · Total Futbol Academy (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 6–4
LWWlast 3
50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
+0.98 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
Los Angeles SC
7th · 1.50 PPG

Fremont Park, Fremont Park (9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol AcademyLos Angeles SC
Position3rd7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-11-0-1
Points per game2.001.50
Goals for / game2.02.0
Goals against / game1.32.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W LW L
Biggest win4–2 at Laguna United3–1 at ALBION SC Los Angeles
Worst loss1–2 vs ALBION SC San Diego1–4 at ALBION SC Riverside
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.52-0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.98-0.95

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fremont Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy – Los Angeles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.25 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 4
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
50% top 4
50% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2.71 (+0.71) 1st (2.73) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 City SC - San Diego 2.50 (+0.50) 2nd (2.45) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy to Los Angeles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 4–3 4–1 Total Futbol Academy 3rd Laguna United 12th ALBION SC Riverside 10th Los Angeles SC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.42 · 11th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
7th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Fremont Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.65 1.91 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:15 AM
City SC - San Diego
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15
Home
Azusa HS
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.72 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Reds FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Away
Brywood Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.14 1.62 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
citrus college
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 1.70 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.17 1.76 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
03:00 PM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
Los Alamos Hills Sport Park · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 1.76 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 1.77 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.98 1.79 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -24
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 1.87 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 1.87 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Azusa HS
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.79 1.87 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 7610 438+35 192.71 WWDWW -0.12 -0.51 100% 1.1
2 City SC - San Diego 4310 216+15 102.50 WWDW +0.33 -0.44 98% 2.1
3 Total Futbol Academy 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.98 -0.42 50% 4.8
4 Chula Vista FC 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL +0.09 -0.08 13% 7.0
5 Reds FC 4211 1510+5 71.75 WLDW +0.70 -0.49 66% 4.2
6 Oaks FC 2101 108+2 31.50 WL +0.50 -0.14 18% 6.7
7 Los Angeles SC 2101 45-1 31.50 LW -0.95 +0.09 4% 8.3
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3111 82+6 41.33 WDL +0.08 -0.18 46% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.50 -0.41 5% 8.4
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 713-6 31.00 WLL +0.13 -0.07 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 28-6 31.00 LWL -0.08 +0.00 0% 11.0
12 Laguna United 4103 719-12 30.75 LLLW +1.27 -0.50 0% 11.1
13 City SC Los Angeles 4103 226-24 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.04 0% 14.4
14 FC Golden State Force 3003 15-4 00.00 LLL -1.48 +0.35 0% 13.0
15 LA Surf Futures 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.43 -0.04 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.