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FC Golden State Force

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 15 teams · FC Golden State Force (all teams)

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14th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 1–5
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.0
-1.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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FC Golden State Force
14th · 0.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1.00 PPG

Azusa High School, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.1 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so farFC Golden State ForceALBION SC Riverside
Position14th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-0-2
Points per game0.001.00
Goals for / game0.32.3
Goals against / game1.74.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L LL L W
Biggest win—4–1 vs Los Angeles SC
Worst loss0–2 at Chula Vista FC0–8 at City SC - San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.85-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.48+0.13

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    ALBION SC Riverside concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–8 at City SC - San Diego.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Chula Vista FC, 0–1 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    City SC Los Angeles sit 13th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A win moves us above City SC Los Angeles on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Golden State Force – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.25 PPG
14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1
Win
0.75 PPG
11th▲ up 3 9th▲ up 5 14th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 21%
  14. 14th 29%
  15. 15th 19%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2.71 (+2.71) 1st (2.73) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.45) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.87) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Chula Vista FC 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.54) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Reds FC 1.75 (+1.75) 3rd (1.95) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Oaks FC 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.58) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.35) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 1.33 (+1.33) 5th (1.82) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.33) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 ALBION SC Riverside 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.11) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (1.01) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 Laguna United 0.75 (+0.75) 12th (0.99) Win next game
13 City SC Los Angeles 0.75 (+0.75) 15th (0.47) Win next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Golden State Force to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 2–5 8–0 0–1 1–3 1–4 FC Golden State For… 14th Chula Vista FC 4th ALBION SC Los Angel… 11th City SC - San Diego 2nd Los Angeles SC 7th ALBION SC Riverside 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 1st hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Home
Azusa High School
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.38 0.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Oaks FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Wildflower Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.66 0.41 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Azusa High School
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.23 0.54 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.64 0.56 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Azusa High School
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 0.58 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +35
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.19 0.53 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
7th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 0.57 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.55 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 0.61 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Reds FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 0.62 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
citrus college
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.33 0.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 7610 438+35 192.71 WWDWW -0.12 -0.51 100% 1.1
2 City SC - San Diego 4310 216+15 102.50 WWDW +0.33 -0.44 98% 2.1
3 Total Futbol Academy 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.98 -0.42 50% 4.8
4 Chula Vista FC 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL +0.09 -0.08 13% 7.0
5 Reds FC 4211 1510+5 71.75 WLDW +0.70 -0.49 66% 4.2
6 Oaks FC 2101 108+2 31.50 WL +0.50 -0.14 18% 6.7
7 Los Angeles SC 2101 45-1 31.50 LW -0.95 +0.09 4% 8.3
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3111 82+6 41.33 WDL +0.08 -0.18 46% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.50 -0.41 5% 8.4
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 713-6 31.00 WLL +0.13 -0.07 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 28-6 31.00 LWL -0.08 +0.00 0% 11.0
12 Laguna United 4103 719-12 30.75 LLLW +1.27 -0.50 0% 11.1
13 City SC Los Angeles 4103 226-24 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.04 0% 14.4
14 FC Golden State Force 3003 15-4 00.00 LLL -1.48 +0.35 0% 13.0
15 LA Surf Futures 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.43 -0.04 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.