TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Los Angeles

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Los Angeles (all teams)

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11th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-6 goal diff · 2–8
LWLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.0
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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ALBION SC Los Angeles
11th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Oaks FC
6th · 1.50 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park, ABC ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.3 against · 0.90 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Los AngelesOaks FC
Position11th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-21-0-1
Points per game1.001.50
Goals for / game0.75.0
Goals against / game2.74.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W LL W
Biggest win1–0 at FC Golden State Force9–0 vs City SC Los Angeles
Worst loss0–5 at Reds FC1–8 vs ALBION SC San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.98+0.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08+0.50

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Oaks FC score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Reds FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Riverside sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Riverside on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oaks FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Los Angeles – Oaks FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 4 6th▲ up 5 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 3
Loss
0.75 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 18%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2.71 (+1.71) 1st (2.73) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego 2.50 (+1.50) 2nd (2.45) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.87) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Chula Vista FC 2.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.54) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5 Reds FC 1.75 (+0.75) 3rd (1.95) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Oaks FC 1.50 (+0.50) 6th (1.58) Win next game
7 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.35) Win next game
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 1.33 (+0.33) 5th (1.82) A point next game
9 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.33) A point next game
10 ALBION SC Riverside 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.11) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Los Angeles to Oaks FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 2–7 8–1 1–0 1–2 0–9 ALBION SC Los Angel… 11th Reds FC 5th FC Golden State For… 14th ALBION SC San Diego 1st City SC Los Angeles 13th Oaks FC 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Oaks FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●● Very tough
25%
2–3 0.90 0.97 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.23 1.03 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +35
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–5 0.08 0.87 Upside
Sun Nov 22
08:30 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -24
Away
Manhattan Village Field
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.02 1.03 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
10:30 AM
Chula Vista FC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.05 1.04 Upside
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
Laguna United
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.10 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.20 1.01 Upside
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.82 0.99 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.08 1.00 Upside
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
LA Surf Futures
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 1.05 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Crossroads School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–2 0.47 1.01 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 7610 438+35 192.71 WWDWW -0.12 -0.51 100% 1.1
2 City SC - San Diego 4310 216+15 102.50 WWDW +0.33 -0.44 98% 2.1
3 Total Futbol Academy 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.98 -0.42 50% 4.8
4 Chula Vista FC 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL +0.09 -0.08 13% 7.0
5 Reds FC 4211 1510+5 71.75 WLDW +0.70 -0.49 66% 4.2
6 Oaks FC 2101 108+2 31.50 WL +0.50 -0.14 18% 6.7
7 Los Angeles SC 2101 45-1 31.50 LW -0.95 +0.09 4% 8.3
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3111 82+6 41.33 WDL +0.08 -0.18 46% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.50 -0.41 5% 8.4
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 713-6 31.00 WLL +0.13 -0.07 0% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 28-6 31.00 LWL -0.08 +0.00 0% 11.0
12 Laguna United 4103 719-12 30.75 LLLW +1.27 -0.50 0% 11.1
13 City SC Los Angeles 4103 226-24 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.04 0% 14.4
14 FC Golden State Force 3003 15-4 00.00 LLL -1.48 +0.35 0% 13.0
15 LA Surf Futures 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.43 -0.04 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.