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LA Surf Futures

Elite Academy League · Southwest U11 · 15 teams · LA Surf Futures (all teams)

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15th
0-0-2 record · 2 played
0.00 points per game
-8 goal diff · 2–10
LLlast 2
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.6
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LA Surf Futures
15th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Laguna United
12th · 0.75 PPG

citrus college, 9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.9 against · 1.49 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf FuturesLaguna United
Position15th12th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-21-0-3
Points per game0.000.75
Goals for / game1.01.8
Goals against / game5.04.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L LW L L L
Biggest win—4–3 at ALBION SC Riverside
Worst loss0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica0–7 vs ALBION SC San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.47-1.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43+1.27

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Laguna United concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–7 vs ALBION SC San Diego.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 17% / loss 39%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Golden State Force sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FC Golden State Force on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Laguna United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf Futures – Laguna United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
12th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 5 13th▲ up 2
Win
1.00 PPG
12th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 5 13th▲ up 2
Draw
0.33 PPG
14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 24%
  14. 14th 24%
  15. 15th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego 2.71 (+2.71) 1st (2.73) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 City SC - San Diego 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.45) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.87) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Chula Vista FC 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.54) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Reds FC 1.75 (+1.75) 3rd (1.95) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Oaks FC 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.58) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.35) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 1.33 (+1.33) 5th (1.82) 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.33) Win next game
10 ALBION SC Riverside 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.11) Win next game
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (1.01) Win next game
12 Laguna United 0.75 (+0.75) 12th (0.99) A point next game
13 City SC Los Angeles 0.75 (+0.75) 15th (0.47) A point next game
14 FC Golden State Force 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.67) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf Futures to Laguna United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–5 5–1 0–7 0–1 4–2 LA Surf Futures 15th Chula Vista FC 4th ALBION SC Santa Mon… 8th City SC - San Diego 2nd Total Futbol Academy 3rd Laguna United 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 5th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Laguna United
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -12
Home
citrus college
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
3–2 1.49 0.50 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
02:30 PM
City SC - San Diego
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +15
Away
Alga Norte Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.12 0.40 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
ALBION SC San Diego
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +35
Home
Citrus College
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–6 0.09 0.34 Upside
Sat Nov 7
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
SilverLakes
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.95 0.44 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Oaks FC
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +2
Home
citrus college
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–4 0.75 0.49 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
citrus college
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.69 0.51 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Reds FC
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Away
Brywood Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.32 0.49 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.80 0.52 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -24
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.31 0.68 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
7th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.73 0.69 Upside
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.15 0.72 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -4
Home
citrus college
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.46 0.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego 7610 438+35 192.71 WWDWW -0.12 -0.51 100% 1.1
2 City SC - San Diego 4310 216+15 102.50 WWDW +0.33 -0.44 99% 2.1
3 Total Futbol Academy 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.98 -0.42 48% 4.8
4 Chula Vista FC 3201 77+0 62.00 WWL +0.09 -0.08 14% 6.9
5 Reds FC 4211 1510+5 71.75 WLDW +0.70 -0.49 65% 4.2
6 Oaks FC 2101 108+2 31.50 WL +0.50 -0.14 18% 6.6
7 Los Angeles SC 2101 45-1 31.50 LW -0.95 +0.09 4% 8.3
8 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3111 82+6 41.33 WDL +0.08 -0.18 47% 5.0
9 City SC Southwest 3102 711-4 31.00 WLL +0.50 -0.41 4% 8.4
10 ALBION SC Riverside 3102 713-6 31.00 WLL +0.13 -0.07 1% 10.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3102 28-6 31.00 LWL -0.08 +0.00 0% 11.0
12 Laguna United 4103 719-12 30.75 LLLW +1.27 -0.50 0% 11.2
13 City SC Los Angeles 4103 226-24 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.04 0% 14.5
14 FC Golden State Force 3003 15-4 00.00 LLL -1.48 +0.35 0% 13.0
15 LA Surf Futures 2002 210-8 00.00 LL +0.43 -0.04 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.