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FC1 Academy

Elite Academy League · Mid-America U14 · 17 teams · FC1 Academy (all teams)

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13th
1-0-5 record · 6 played
0.50 points per game
-26 goal diff · 1–27
LLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.7
+0.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Thu Nov 12, 07:30 PM

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FC1 Academy
13th · 0.50 PPG
at
FC Stars
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Niles West High School (Stadium), STADIUM ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.8 for, 5.2 against · 0.07 expected points)

Season so farFC1 AcademyFC Stars
Position13th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-52-0-0
Points per game0.503.00
Goals for / game0.24.5
Goals against / game4.52.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless50
Form (recent first)L L W L LW W
Biggest win1–0 at North Shore United Soccer Club4–0 at Forward Madison
Worst loss0–6 at Orland Park Sting FC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.68+0.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.48-0.71

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Stars score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 vs Chicago Rush, 0–4 at Croatian Eagles SC, 0–6 at Orland Park Sting FC, 0–6 vs Team Chicago, 0–6 vs Indy Premier SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:30 PM at Niles West High School (Stadium).

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club sit 12th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Thursday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Stars game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC1 Academy – FC Stars) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.43 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Win
0.86 PPG		 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1
Draw
0.57 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.43 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–5 loss we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 26%
  16. 16th 33%
  17. 17th 26%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Orland Park Sting FC 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.44) 45 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Stars 3.00 (+2.50) 5th (1.86) 45 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 United Elite SC 2.60 (+2.10) 2nd (2.41) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Team Chicago 2.40 (+1.90) 3rd (2.32) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 USA of Indiana 2.40 (+1.90) 4th (1.98) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Chicago Empire FC 2.00 (+1.50) 6th (1.80) 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Croatian Eagles SC 1.50 (+1.00) 7th (1.71) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Chicago Rush 1.50 (+1.00) 9th (1.42) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 Indy Premier SC 1.00 (+0.50) 11th (1.21) 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 Hoosier FC 1.00 (+0.50) 12th (1.20) 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 JaHBat 1.00 (+0.50) 13th (1.10) 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.25) 8th (1.44) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FC1 Academy to FC Stars through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 7–0 0–4 0–5 5–0 1–0 0–7 4–5 FC1 Academy 13th Team Chicago 4th Chicago Rush 8th North Shore United … 16th Forward Madison 14th Chicago KICS Youth … 12th FC Stars 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Thu Nov 12
07:30 PM		 FC Stars
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +5		 Away
Niles West High School (Stadium) · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.07 0.44 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM		 JB Marine Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–3 0.30 0.42 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Forward Madison
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.21 0.51 Upside
Sun Mar 14
10:00 AM		 USA of Indiana
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
Mary & John Geisse Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.07 0.47 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Hoosier FC
10th · 0-1-0 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.24 0.45 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Chicago City Soccer Club
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -13		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.04 0.50 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 United Elite SC
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.04 0.46 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Chicago Empire FC
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.10 0.42 Upside
Sat May 15
12:00 AM		 JaHBat
11th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.55 0.43 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Orland Park Sting FC 4400 151+14 123.00 WWWW -0.79 +0.13 96% 2.0
2 FC Stars 2200 94+5 63.00 WW -0.71 +0.06 31% 5.6
3 United Elite SC 5410 152+13 132.60 WWWDW +0.14 -0.22 96% 2.2
4 Team Chicago 5401 214+17 122.40 WLWWW -0.49 +0.00 91% 2.7
5 USA of Indiana 5401 156+9 122.40 WWWLW -0.02 +0.29 44% 4.9
6 Chicago Empire FC 3201 64+2 62.00 LWW +0.62 -0.21 22% 6.2
7 Croatian Eagles SC 4202 115+6 61.50 LWLW -0.32 -0.10 13% 6.8
8 Chicago Rush 4202 118+3 61.50 WLLW -0.76 +0.24 2% 9.2
9 Indy Premier SC 3102 88+0 31.00 LWL -0.07 +0.32 1% 10.6
10 Hoosier FC 1010 11+0 11.00 D -0.54 +0.18 1% 10.7
11 JaHBat 4112 48-4 41.00 LDLW +0.12 -0.02 0% 11.4
12 Chicago KICS Youth Soccer Club 4103 1412+2 30.75 WLLL +0.44 -0.17 2% 8.9
13 FC1 Academy 6105 127-26 30.50 LLWLL +0.48 -0.03 0% 15.7
14 Forward Madison 4013 016-16 10.25 LDLL +1.17 -0.47 0% 14.8
15 JB Marine Soccer Club 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.23 ——
16 North Shore United Soccer Club 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL -0.27 +0.15 0% 15.7
17 Chicago City Soccer Club 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.05 0% 15.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.