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PacNW SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU11 · 10 teams · PacNW (all teams)

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5th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
+2 goal diff · 7–5
WWLDLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.3
-1.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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PacNW SC Pre
5th · 1.40 PPG
vs
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 0.80 PPG

Starfire Sports, Field 10 (Mod) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.2 against · 1.43 expected points)

Season so farPacNW SC PreWashington Premier Pre
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-21-1-3
Points per game1.400.80
Goals for / game1.41.4
Goals against / game1.01.4
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L D L W WL D L L W
Biggest win4–0 vs Snohomish United Pre3–0 vs Eastside FC Pre- II
Worst loss0–3 at XF Pre- 20–1 at XF Pre- 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.02+0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.02+0.44

Common opponents: Northwest United Pre — we 1–2; they 2–2. Eastside FC Pre- II — we 0–0; they 3–0. XF Pre- 2 — we 0–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Eastside FC Pre- II, 0–3 at XF Pre- 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Washington Premier Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PacNW SC Pre – Washington Premier Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.33 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.17 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
6.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 30%
  7. 7th 49%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+1.60) 1st (2.47) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2 Seattle United Pre 2.60 (+1.20) 2nd (2.31) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 Eastside FC Pre- I 2.25 (+0.85) 3rd (2.07) 34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 XF Pre- 2 2.00 (+0.60) 4th (1.85) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link PacNW SC Pre to Washington Premier Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–2 0–3 1–0 0–0 0–3 1–1 2–1 4–0 0–5 2–1 0–2 2–3 1–2 1–3 2–0 0–7 PacNW SC Pre 5th Northwest United Pre 6th XF Pre- 2 4th Eastside FC Pre- II 8th Snohomish United Pre 9th Seattle United Pre … 10th Seattle United Pre 2nd Eastside FC Pre- I 3rd Washington Premier … 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 1st hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD +0
Home
Starfire Sports
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.43 1.41 Upside
Sat Oct 31
07:30 AM
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +16
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.49 1.27 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- I
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.94 1.23 Upside
Sat Jan 16
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.55 1.16 Upside
Sat Jan 23
01:30 PM
Snohomish United Pre
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.28 1.27 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Seattle United Pre Copa
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -17
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
2–0 2.58 1.39 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Northwest United Pre
6th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.44 1.39 Upside
Sat Feb 13
02:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
8th · 0-1-3 · GD -12
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
1–0 2.13 1.45 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD
XF Pre- 2
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.19 1.43 Upside
Sat Feb 27
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD +0
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.21 1.42 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +16
Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–2 0.66 1.37 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.74 1.33 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.40 1.28 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 3300 140+14 93.00 WWW -1.23 -0.10 100% 1.4
2 Seattle United Pre 5410 193+16 132.60 WDWWW -0.60 -0.09 100% 2.0
3 Eastside FC Pre- I 4301 103+7 92.25 WLWW +0.08 -0.25 96% 3.0
4 XF Pre- 2 6402 117+4 122.00 LWLWW +0.27 -0.29 83% 3.9
5 PacNW SC Pre 5212 75+2 71.40 WWLDL -1.02 +0.34 3% 6.3
6 Northwest United Pre 4121 77+0 51.25 DWDL +0.60 -0.26 13% 5.4
7 Washington Premier Pre 5113 77+0 40.80 WLLDL +0.44 -0.23 5% 6.0
8 Eastside FC Pre- II 4013 012-12 10.25 LLLD +0.62 -0.02 0% 8.6
9 Snohomish United Pre 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +1.06 +0.01 0% 9.0
10 Seattle United Pre Copa 3003 017-17 00.00 LLL +1.31 +0.01 0% 9.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.