Northwest United Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU11 · 10 teams · Northwest United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Skagit Valley College, Field 1 - 9v9 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.7 against · 0.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Northwest United Pre | XF Pre- 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 4.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W D | W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs PacNW SC Pre | 8–0 vs Seattle United Pre Copa |
| Worst loss | 2–3 vs XF Pre- 2 | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.13 | +2.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.60 | -1.23 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
XF Pre- 1 score 4.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
XF Pre- 1 concede only 0.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 12%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
XF Pre- 1 have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
PacNW SC Pre sit 5th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.25.A point moves us above PacNW SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northwest United Pre – XF Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.60 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.20 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 44%
- 6th 29%
- 7th 14%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.61 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 3.00 (+1.75) | 1st (2.47) | 49 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 2.60 (+1.35) | 2nd (2.31) | 42 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 3 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 2.25 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.07) | 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | XF Pre- 2 | 2.00 (+0.75) | 4th (1.85) | 31 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 5 | PacNW SC Pre | 1.40 (+0.15) | 7th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
5 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Northwest United Pre to XF Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 9th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
XF Pre- 1 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.51 | 1.10 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Away Valley View Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 1.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -17 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 1.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 10:15 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.29 | 1.52 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 PM |
Washington Premier Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +16 |
Home Sedro-Woolley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
XF Pre- 1 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–3 | 0.35 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Home Sedro-Woolley High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.62 | 1.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 09:30 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 1.52 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.49 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | +14 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.23 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 2 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 13 | 2.60 | WDWWW | -0.60 | -0.09 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC Pre · Sat Dec 12 at XF Pre- 1 See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.08 | -0.25 | 96% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Nov 14 at PacNW SC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | XF Pre- 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 | 2.00 | LWLWW | +0.27 | -0.29 | 84% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Dec 5 at Snohomish United Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Seattle United Pre Copa See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLDL | -1.02 | +0.34 | 2% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Northwest United Pre | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.60 | -0.26 | 13% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Snohomish United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Seattle United Pre Copa See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Washington Premier Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +0.44 | -0.23 | 6% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Dec 12 vs Snohomish United Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | +0.62 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Seattle United Pre Copa See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Snohomish United Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.06 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre Copa · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside FC Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.31 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at Northwest United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.