Evolution Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Lake Michigan GU11 · 13 teams · Evolution SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Stuart Sports Complex, Field 52 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–7 (expected goals 1.1 for, 7.1 against · 0.04 expected points)
| Season so far | Evolution Pre | Chicago Inter Pre- Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-7 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.38 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 5.3 |
| Goals against / game | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | W D L W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs Indiana Elite FC Pre | 11–0 at Indiana Elite FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–12 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre | 3–7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.28 | +2.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +0.46 |
Common opponents: Force Pre — we 1–3; they 6–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre — we 0–12; they 2–2. Indiana Elite FC Pre — we 3–1; they 11–0. FC Wisconsin Pre — we 0–3; they 7–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Chicago Inter Pre- Red score 5.3/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–7 vs Rockford Raptors FC Pre, 0–12 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre, 0–8 vs NWI Lions United Pre, 0–3 vs FC Wisconsin Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Force Pre sit 12th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.38.A point moves us above Force Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chicago Inter Pre- Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Evolution Pre – Chicago Inter Pre- Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.33 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
12th▲ up 1 | 10th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.44 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 13th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–7 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 12%
- 13th 82%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre | 3.00 (+2.62) | 1st (2.75) | 69 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 64 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Rockford Raptors FC Pre | 2.50 (+2.12) | 5th (1.95) | 57 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 3 | FC 1974 Libertyville Pre | 2.40 (+2.02) | 6th (1.82) | 55 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 4 | NWI Lions United Pre | 2.25 (+1.87) | 4th (2.10) | 51 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 5 | Chicago Inter Pre- Red | 2.17 (+1.79) | 2nd (2.30) | 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre | 1.86 (+1.48) | 3rd (2.17) | 42 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Rockford Raptors FC Pre II | 1.67 (+1.29) | 8th (1.19) | 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 8 | Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre | 1.20 (+0.82) | 7th (1.27) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Wisconsin Pre | 1.00 (+0.62) | 9th (0.86) | 21 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 10 | Chicago Inter Pre- Blue | 0.83 (+0.45) | 10th (0.75) | 17 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 11 | Indiana Elite FC Pre | 0.71 (+0.33) | 12th (0.57) | 15 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 12 | Force Pre | 0.60 (+0.22) | 11th (0.68) | A point next game |
How the results connect
28 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Evolution Pre to Chicago Inter Pre- Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.63 · 4th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Chicago Inter Pre- Red 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.04 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC Pre II 7th · 3-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Indiana Elite FC Pre 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Elite Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC Wisconsin Pre 9th · 2-3-4 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +37 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Chicago Inter Pre- Blue 10th · 1-2-3 · GD -20 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Force Pre 12th · 2-0-8 · GD -18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre 8th · 4-0-6 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Chicago Inter Pre- Blue 10th · 1-2-3 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Chicago Inter Pre- Red 5th · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.02 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville Pre 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.22 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
NWI Lions United Pre 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–8 | 0.02 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville Pre 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.13 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +37 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.01 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.05 | 0.36 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 9 | +37 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.56 | -0.52 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC 1974 Libertyville Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Wisconsin Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rockford Raptors FC Pre | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.85 | +0.33 | 35% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs NWI Lions United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Indiana Elite FC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC 1974 Libertyville Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.77 | +0.26 | 15% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs FC Wisconsin Pre · Sun Oct 18 at NWI Lions United Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NWI Lions United Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -1.68 | +0.23 | 71% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs FC 1974 Libertyville Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre II See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chicago Inter Pre- Red | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 13 | 2.17 | WWLDW | +0.46 | -0.24 | 95% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Oct 20 vs Chicago Inter Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Evolution Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 13 | 1.86 | WWWDL | +0.94 | -0.46 | 84% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre II · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Wisconsin Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC 1974 Libertyville Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rockford Raptors FC Pre II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | -0.23 | +0.31 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Indiana Elite FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs NWI Lions United Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 12 | 1.20 | WLLLL | +0.21 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Chicago Inter Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Chicago Inter Pre- Red · Sat Mar 20 at Force Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Wisconsin Pre | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 9 | 1.00 | DLWDL | -0.52 | +0.65 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at FC 1974 Libertyville Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Chicago Inter Pre- Blue | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 5 | 0.83 | DLLLW | +0.47 | +0.25 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Tue Oct 20 at Chicago Inter Pre- Red · Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Indiana Elite FC Pre | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 5 | 0.71 | LLWLL | -0.81 | +0.72 | 0% | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre II · Sat Oct 24 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Evolution Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Force Pre | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 6 | 0.60 | LLLLL | -0.29 | +0.66 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club II Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club I Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs Chicago Soccer Academy (CSA) Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Evolution Pre | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 41 | -35 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLWL | -0.12 | +0.63 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre II · Sun Oct 25 at Rockford Raptors FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.