TableChase Clubs

XF Pre- 2

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU11 · 12 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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6th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
-3 goal diff · 13–16
WLLWWlast 5
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM

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XF Pre- 2
6th · 1.80 PPG
at
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 0.80 PPG

Stocker Fields, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.3 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so farXF Pre- 2Snohomish United Pre
Position6th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-21-1-3
Points per game1.800.80
Goals for / game2.61.8
Goals against / game3.22.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W W L L WW D L L L
Biggest win7–1 at Washington Premier Pre- Black3–2 at Eastside FC Pre- II
Worst loss0–7 at Eastside FC Pre- I0–3 at Northwest United PreECNL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.19-0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.33-0.96

Common opponents: Washington Premier Pre- Black — we 7–1; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at Eastside FC Pre- I, 0–5 at XF Pre- 1.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Stocker Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    PacNW SC Pre sit 5th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A point moves us above PacNW SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Snohomish United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 2 – Snohomish United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
94% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 38%
  6. 6th 33%
  7. 7th 19%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.88) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Northwest United PreECNL 3.00 (+1.20) 3rd (2.19) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3 XF Pre- 1 2.25 (+0.45) 2nd (2.22) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre 1.80 (+0.00) 4th (2.03) A point next game
5 PacNW SC Pre 1.80 (+0.00) 6th (1.48) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link XF Pre- 2 to Snohomish United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–1 3–3 3–1 2–3 2–3 0–5 3–1 0–5 5–0 1–4 3–0 2–6 0–7 8–0 3–2 3–2 3–1 4–1 9–0 14–1 XF Pre- 2 6th Washington Premier … 10th Valor Soccer - Pre 12th XF Pre- 1 3rd Eastside FC Pre- I 1st Washington Premier … 7th Eastside FC Pre- II 11th PacNW SC Pre 5th Northwest United Pr… 2nd Seattle United Pre … 9th Snohomish United Pre 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Stocker Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.59 1.77 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
TBD
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.75 1.62 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 1.70 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.26 1.65 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.37 1.72 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
TBD
Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
4–2 2.42 1.79 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43
Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.09 1.64 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD
XF Pre- 1
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.66 1.57 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.57 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.11 1.61 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
3–2 1.92 1.63 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.51 1.56 Upside
Sat Mar 13
02:30 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away far trip
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.95 1.58 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.61 1.58 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
11:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.09 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 1.56 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 1.53 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 6600 452+43 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.52 100% 1.0
2 Northwest United PreECNL 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW -0.34 -0.06 97% 2.9
3 XF Pre- 1 4301 143+11 92.25 WWLW +0.67 -0.32 99% 2.7
4 Seattle United Pre 5302 186+12 91.80 LWLWW -0.09 -0.19 91% 3.5
5 PacNW SC Pre 5302 1214-2 91.80 WWWLL +0.44 -0.08 5% 5.9
6 XF Pre- 2 5302 1316-3 91.80 WLLWW +0.33 -0.10 7% 5.7
7 Washington Premier Pre 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.58 +0.16 1% 6.5
8 Snohomish United Pre 5113 914-5 40.80 LLLDW -0.96 +0.36 0% 8.5
9 Seattle United Pre Copa 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +1.29 -0.12 0% 9.4
10 Washington Premier Pre- Black 6114 1234-22 40.67 LWDLL +0.61 +0.08 0% 10.3
11 Eastside FC Pre- II 5104 621-15 30.60 LLWLL +0.01 +0.21 0% 10.3
12 Valor Soccer - Pre 5005 621-15 00.00 LLLLL -0.69 +0.41 0% 11.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.