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XF Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU11 · 12 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+11 goal diff · 14–3
WWLWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
+0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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XF Pre- 1
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0.00 PPG

Petrovitsky Park, Field 1(9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.1 against · 2.69 expected points)

Season so farXF Pre- 1Valor Soccer - Pre
Position3rd12th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-10-0-5
Points per game2.250.00
Goals for / game3.51.2
Goals against / game0.84.2
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L W WL L L L L
Biggest win5–0 vs Eastside FC Pre- II—
Worst loss0–3 at Eastside FC Pre- I0–5 at PacNW SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.60-1.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.67-0.69

Common opponents: Eastside FC Pre- II — we 5–0; they 2–3. XF Pre- 2 — we 5–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Valor Soccer - Pre average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Valor Soccer - Pre concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–5 at PacNW SC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Eastside FC Pre- I.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Valor Soccer - Pre have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Petrovitsky Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valor Soccer - Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 1 – Valor Soccer - Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 47%
  3. 3rd 33%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.88) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Northwest United PreECNL 3.00 (+0.75) 3rd (2.19) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link XF Pre- 1 to Valor Soccer - Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
0 favour them
+9.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–0 3–2 5–0 3–1 4–0 2–3 0–3 7–0 4–1 3–1 6–2 9–0 5–0 14–1 7–1 XF Pre- 1 3rd Eastside FC Pre- II 11th XF Pre- 2 6th Washington Premier … 7th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st Washington Premier … 10th PacNW SC Pre 5th Valor Soccer - Pre 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.32 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15		 Away
Petrovitsky Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.69 2.34 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM		 Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
60 Acres Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.58 2.38 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM		 Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Jefferson Park 		●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.38 2.24 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–0 2.75 2.30 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
05:00 PM		 Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Skagit Valley College		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.43 2.20 Upside
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM		 Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15		 Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.69 2.25 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
TBD		 XF Pre- 2
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–1 2.19 2.25 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
TBD		 Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.58 2.11 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD		 Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.86 2.17 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
09:00 AM		 Washington Premier Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.14 2.16 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–0 2.81 2.21 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
09:00 AM		 Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Valley View Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.39 2.22 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.67 2.19 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
11:00 AM		 Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13		 Away far trip
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.61 2.21 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
10:30 AM		 Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22		 Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.75 2.24 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–1 2.19 2.24 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 2.24 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.71 2.22 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 6600 452+43 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.52 100% 1.0
2 Northwest United PreECNL 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW -0.34 -0.06 97% 2.9
3 XF Pre- 1 4301 143+11 92.25 WWLW +0.67 -0.32 99% 2.7
4 Seattle United Pre 5302 186+12 91.80 LWLWW -0.09 -0.19 91% 3.5
5 PacNW SC Pre 5302 1214-2 91.80 WWWLL +0.44 -0.08 5% 5.9
6 XF Pre- 2 5302 1316-3 91.80 WLLWW +0.33 -0.10 7% 5.7
7 Washington Premier Pre 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.58 +0.16 1% 6.5
8 Snohomish United Pre 5113 914-5 40.80 LLLDW -0.96 +0.36 0% 8.5
9 Seattle United Pre Copa 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +1.29 -0.12 0% 9.4
10 Washington Premier Pre- Black 6114 1234-22 40.67 LWDLL +0.61 +0.08 0% 10.3
11 Eastside FC Pre- II 5104 621-15 30.60 LLWLL +0.01 +0.21 0% 10.3
12 Valor Soccer - Pre 5005 621-15 00.00 LLLLL -0.69 +0.41 0% 11.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.