Washington Premier Pre- Black
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU11 · 12 teams · Washington Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.5 for, 4.1 against · 0.77 expected points)
| Season so far | Washington Premier Pre- Black | PacNW SC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-4 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | L L W W W |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Valor Soccer - Pre | 5–0 vs Valor Soccer - Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–14 at Eastside FC Pre- I | 0–9 vs Eastside FC Pre- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.24 | -0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.61 | +0.44 |
Common opponents: Valor Soccer - Pre — we 6–2; they 5–0. Snohomish United Pre — we 3–3; they 3–1. Eastside FC Pre- I — we 1–14; they 0–9.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs Seattle United Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Seattle United Pre Copa sit 9th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.67.A point moves us above Seattle United Pre Copa on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington Premier Pre- Black – PacNW SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.57 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
8th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 2 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.71 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.57 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 17%
- 10th 29%
- 11th 27%
- 12th 19%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 3.00 (+2.33) | 1st (2.88) | 62 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Northwest United PreECNL | 3.00 (+2.33) | 3rd (2.19) | 62 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 3 | XF Pre- 1 | 2.25 (+1.58) | 2nd (2.22) | 46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 1.80 (+1.13) | 4th (2.03) | 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 5 | PacNW SC Pre | 1.80 (+1.13) | 6th (1.48) | 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 6 | XF Pre- 2 | 1.80 (+1.13) | 5th (1.53) | 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 7 | Washington Premier Pre | 1.50 (+0.83) | 7th (1.37) | 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 8 | Snohomish United Pre | 0.80 (+0.13) | 8th (0.96) | A point next game |
| 9 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 0.75 (+0.08) | 9th (0.83) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Washington Premier Pre- Black to PacNW SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
PacNW SC Pre 5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–4 | 0.77 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Northwest United PreECNL 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.16 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
3–2 | 1.65 | 0.66 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 10:30 AM |
Northwest United PreECNL 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 6th · 3-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
2–4 | 0.48 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 07:00 AM |
Washington Premier Pre 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.51 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
Valor Soccer - Pre 12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–3 | 1.32 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 07:30 AM |
Snohomish United Pre 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.11 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
XF Pre- 1 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.10 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 10:30 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–2 | 1.50 | 0.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Seattle United Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.50 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
XF Pre- 1 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.19 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Seattle United Pre Copa 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–3 | 1.14 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:15 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–3 | 1.28 | 0.69 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | +43 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.25 | -0.52 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Oct 31 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Washington Premier Pre- Black See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Northwest United PreECNL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.34 | -0.06 | 98% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Washington Premier Pre- Black · Sat Nov 7 at Eastside FC Pre- II See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | XF Pre- 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.67 | -0.32 | 98% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.09 | -0.19 | 92% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | +0.44 | -0.08 | 4% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier Pre- Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | XF Pre- 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | +0.33 | -0.10 | 6% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Seattle United Pre Copa See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Washington Premier Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | -0.58 | +0.16 | 2% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 at Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Snohomish United Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Snohomish United Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | -0.96 | +0.36 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs XF Pre- 2 · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 14 at Washington Premier Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +1.29 | -0.12 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 1 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Washington Premier Pre- Black | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 4 | 0.67 | LWDLL | +0.61 | +0.08 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.01 | +0.21 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Oct 31 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United PreECNL See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Valor Soccer - Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.69 | +0.41 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside FC Pre- I See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.