TableChase Clubs

Northwest United PreECNL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU11 · 12 teams · Northwest United FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 12–3
WWWWlast 4
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 3.00 PPG

Skagit Valley College, Field 1 - 9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.4 against · 0.45 expected points)

Season so farNorthwest United PreECNLEastside FC Pre- I
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)4-0-06-0-0
Points per game3.003.00
Goals for / game3.07.5
Goals against / game0.80.3
Clean sheets24
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW W W W W
Biggest win4–1 at Valor Soccer - Pre14–1 vs Washington Premier Pre- Black
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.21+4.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.34-0.25

Common opponents: Seattle United Pre — we 1–0; they 4–1. PacNW SC Pre — we 4–2; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eastside FC Pre- I score 7.5/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Eastside FC Pre- I concede only 0.3/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Eastside FC Pre- I have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Eastside FC Pre- I sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Eastside FC Pre- I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northwest United PreECNL – Eastside FC Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
98% top 4
3% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 39%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.88) Win next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Northwest United PreECNL to Eastside FC Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
11 favour them
-7.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–4 4–2 0–9 5–1 0–8 2–0 3–0 2–3 4–1 1–3 0–7 5–0 1–14 1–3 3–3 0–5 2–6 Northwest United Pr… 2nd Seattle United Pre 4th PacNW SC Pre 5th Snohomish United Pre 8th Valor Soccer - Pre 12th Seattle United Pre … 9th XF Pre- 2 6th Washington Premier … 10th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 2.49 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22
Home
Skagit Valley College
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 2.54 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 2.55 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.51 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
Skagit Valley College
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–1 2.66 2.52 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
05:00 PM
XF Pre- 1
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.35 2.41 Upside
Sat Dec 12
10:30 AM
Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 2.43 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
Washington Premier Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 2.39 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
11:00 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Skagit Valley College
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.74 2.42 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
Snohomish High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 2.40 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.48 2.34 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
02:00 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away far trip
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.49 2.35 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
11:00 AM
PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.35 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
11:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.29 2.23 Upside
Sat Mar 13
05:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Home
Skagit Valley College
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.73 2.26 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
XF Pre- 2
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.28 2.26 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
XF Pre- 2
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.00 2.25 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
XF Pre- 1
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.08 2.19 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 6600 452+43 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.52 100% 1.0
2 Northwest United PreECNL 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW -0.34 -0.06 98% 2.9
3 XF Pre- 1 4301 143+11 92.25 WWLW +0.67 -0.32 98% 2.8
4 Seattle United Pre 5302 186+12 91.80 LWLWW -0.09 -0.19 92% 3.5
5 PacNW SC Pre 5302 1214-2 91.80 WWWLL +0.44 -0.08 5% 6.0
6 XF Pre- 2 5302 1316-3 91.80 WLLWW +0.33 -0.10 6% 5.8
7 Washington Premier Pre 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.58 +0.16 2% 6.5
8 Snohomish United Pre 5113 914-5 40.80 LLLDW -0.96 +0.36 0% 8.5
9 Seattle United Pre Copa 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +1.29 -0.12 0% 9.3
10 Washington Premier Pre- Black 6114 1234-22 40.67 LWDLL +0.61 +0.08 0% 10.3
11 Eastside FC Pre- II 5104 621-15 30.60 LLWLL +0.01 +0.21 0% 10.3
12 Valor Soccer - Pre 5005 621-15 00.00 LLLLL -0.69 +0.41 0% 11.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.