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Washington Premier Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU11 · 12 teams · Washington Premier FC (all teams)

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7th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 9–9
WWLLlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
-0.58 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:30 AM

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Washington Premier Pre
7th · 1.50 PPG
at
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 3.00 PPG

PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.9 for, 5.9 against · 0.06 expected points)

Season so farWashington Premier PreEastside FC Pre- I
Position7th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-26-0-0
Points per game1.503.00
Goals for / game2.37.5
Goals against / game2.30.3
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W WW W W W W
Biggest win4–1 vs Eastside FC Pre- II14–1 vs Washington Premier Pre- Black
Worst loss0–4 at XF Pre- 1—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.17+4.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.58-0.25

Common opponents: Washington Premier Pre- Black — we 3–1; they 14–1. XF Pre- 2 — we 2–3; they 7–0. XF Pre- 1 — we 0–4; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eastside FC Pre- I score 7.5/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Eastside FC Pre- I concede only 0.3/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at XF Pre- 1.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Eastside FC Pre- I have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    XF Pre- 2 sit 6th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A win moves us above XF Pre- 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington Premier Pre – Eastside FC Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Win
1.80 PPG
5th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 30%
  7. 7th 40%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.88) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Northwest United PreECNL 3.00 (+1.50) 3rd (2.19) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 XF Pre- 1 2.25 (+0.75) 2nd (2.22) 44 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre 1.80 (+0.30) 4th (2.03) Win next game
5 PacNW SC Pre 1.80 (+0.30) 6th (1.48) Win next game
6 XF Pre- 2 1.80 (+0.30) 5th (1.53) Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Washington Premier Pre to Eastside FC Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
10 favour them
-7.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 0–3 2–3 0–7 3–1 1–14 4–1 0–5 5–0 0–5 1–4 0–7 7–1 Washington Premier … 7th XF Pre- 1 3rd XF Pre- 2 6th Washington Premier … 10th Eastside FC Pre- II 11th Seattle United Pre 4th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
10:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.06 1.21 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away far trip
Petrovitsky Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.07 1.36 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 1.43 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.33 Upside
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.20 1.43 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.27 1.41 Upside
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 1.36 Upside
Sat Jan 16
07:00 AM
Washington Premier Pre- Black
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -22
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
4–2 2.38 1.44 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
06:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 1.49 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
TBD
XF Pre- 2
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.25 1.47 Upside
Sat Feb 13
09:00 AM
XF Pre- 1
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 1.42 Upside
Sat Feb 27
09:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +43
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.12 1.34 Upside
Sat Mar 13
09:00 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
12th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.34 1.40 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
8th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Valley View Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.58 1.41 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
PacNW SC Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.59 1.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 24
03:30 PM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 1.35 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away far trip
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 1.37 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 6600 452+43 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.52 100% 1.0
2 Northwest United PreECNL 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW -0.34 -0.06 97% 2.9
3 XF Pre- 1 4301 143+11 92.25 WWLW +0.67 -0.32 98% 2.8
4 Seattle United Pre 5302 186+12 91.80 LWLWW -0.09 -0.19 92% 3.5
5 PacNW SC Pre 5302 1214-2 91.80 WWWLL +0.44 -0.08 4% 5.9
6 XF Pre- 2 5302 1316-3 91.80 WLLWW +0.33 -0.10 6% 5.8
7 Washington Premier Pre 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.58 +0.16 2% 6.4
8 Snohomish United Pre 5113 914-5 40.80 LLLDW -0.96 +0.36 0% 8.5
9 Seattle United Pre Copa 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +1.29 -0.12 0% 9.3
10 Washington Premier Pre- Black 6114 1234-22 40.67 LWDLL +0.61 +0.08 0% 10.3
11 Eastside FC Pre- II 5104 621-15 30.60 LLWLL +0.01 +0.21 0% 10.4
12 Valor Soccer - Pre 5005 621-15 00.00 LLLLL -0.69 +0.41 0% 11.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.