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PSA North Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU12 · 11 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)

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3rd
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+5 goal diff · 15–10
DWWDWlast 5
83% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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PSA North Pre
3rd · 1.83 PPG
at
Western United Pioneers FC Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Roots Athletic Center, Field 1B ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.5 for, 5.5 against · 0.16 expected points)

Season so farPSA North PreWestern United Pioneers FC Pre
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)3-2-14-0-0
Points per game1.833.00
Goals for / game2.512.5
Goals against / game1.70.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D W W DW W W W
Biggest win4–1 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre27–0 vs Eastern FC Pre
Worst loss0–4 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.67+6.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-1.82

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–4 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre (L)

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Western United Pioneers FC Pre score 12.5/game — well above the league's 3.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Western United Pioneers FC Pre concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Western United Pioneers FC Pre have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Roots Athletic Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Western United Pioneers FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA North Pre – Western United Pioneers FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.57 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.57 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
83% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 36%
  4. 4th 25%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 3.00 (+1.17) 1st (2.89) 49 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC Pre 2.40 (+0.57) 2nd (2.02) 37 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link PSA North Pre to Western United Pioneers FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
10 favour them
-9.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–1 1–1 1–8 3–3 2–2 1–11 3–0 1–8 4–1 1–1 14–2 0–27 PSA North Pre 3rd Fox Soccer Academy … 7th Quickstrike FC Pre 4th WNY Flash Binghamto… 9th FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 5th STA MOSC Pre 8th Eastern FC Pre 11th Western United Pion… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 11th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.46 · 10th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Western United Pioneers FC Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +48		 Away far trip
Roots Athletic Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.16 1.59 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
5th · 1-2-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.22 1.55 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:45 PM		 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
Harrison Field & Complex · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.02 1.60 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
04:45 PM		 Quickstrike FC Pre
4th · 2-3-1 · GD +1		 Home
Harrison Field & Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.83 1.62 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.10 1.58 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre- White
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–2 1.79 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 STA MOSC Pre
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -10		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.13 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
11th · 0-0-2 · GD -39		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 8–1 2.92 1.73 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Long Island Slammers Pre
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–2 1.98 1.74 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 Long Island Slammers Pre
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.66 1.74 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Eastern FC Pre
11th · 0-0-2 · GD -39		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 7–1 2.85 1.80 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 STA MOSC Pre
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -10		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–2 1.82 1.80 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.40 1.78 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre- White
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 1.80 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 4400 502+48 123.00 WWWW -1.82 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 Brentwood SC Pre 5401 178+9 122.40 LWWWW -0.13 -0.20 97% 2.5
3 PSA North Pre 6321 1510+5 111.83 DWWDW +0.43 -0.46 83% 3.5
4 Quickstrike FC Pre 6231 1716+1 91.50 WDDLD +0.25 -0.24 32% 5.2
5 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 4121 178+9 51.25 WDDL -1.01 +0.08 65% 4.2
6 Long Island Slammers Pre 5122 1717+0 51.00 LDWDL -0.51 +0.10 6% 7.1
7 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 4112 912-3 41.00 LLDW +0.18 -0.08 6% 7.1
8 STA MOSC Pre 5122 1323-10 51.00 LWDDL +2.09 -0.71 7% 7.0
9 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 7115 1331-18 40.57 WDLLL +0.14 +0.07 0% 9.6
10 Brentwood SC Pre- White 2011 57-2 10.50 LD -0.69 +0.08 4% 7.8
11 Eastern FC Pre 2002 241-39 00.00 LL +3.68 +0.22 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.