STA MOSC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU12 · 11 teams · STA Mount Olive Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Hillside Park, Turf Field 2 ↗ · turf far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.9 against · 1.69 expected points)
| Season so far | STA MOSC Pre | WNY Flash Binghamton Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-2 | 1-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L D D W L | L L L D W |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre | 4–2 at Brentwood SC Pre- White |
| Worst loss | 1–11 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre | 1–8 at STA MOSC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.66 | -1.67 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +2.09 | +0.14 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 8–1 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (W)
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 16% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
WNY Flash Binghamton Pre have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Hillside Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Binghamton Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (STA MOSC Pre – WNY Flash Binghamton Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.83 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 19%
- 7th 21%
- 8th 22%
- 9th 17%
- 10th 4%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western United Pioneers FC Pre | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.89) | 55 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Brentwood SC Pre | 2.40 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.02) | 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 3 | PSA North Pre | 1.83 (+0.83) | 3rd (1.80) | 32 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Quickstrike FC Pre | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.52) | 25 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | FC Dutchmen Surf Pre | 1.25 (+0.25) | 4th (1.66) | A point next game |
| 6 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 1.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.24) | A point next game |
| 7 | Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre | 1.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.23) | A point next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link STA MOSC Pre to WNY Flash Binghamton Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.71 · 11th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 02:00 PM no score posted |
FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
DiCaprio Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
2–4 | 0.64 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Hillside Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.69 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 5th · 1-2-1 · GD +9 |
Home Turkey Brook Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.94 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Quickstrike FC Pre 4th · 2-3-1 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–3 | 1.26 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–2 | 1.50 | 1.10 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Eastern FC Pre 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -39 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
8–2 | 2.80 | 1.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
PSA North Pre 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.72 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Brentwood SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.83 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Brentwood SC Pre- White 10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
3–3 | 1.57 | 1.21 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Long Island Slammers Pre 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–3 | 1.03 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Brentwood SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–4 | 0.56 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Brentwood SC Pre- White 10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
3–3 | 1.20 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
PSA North Pre 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–2 | 1.00 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Long Island Slammers Pre 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
3–3 | 1.41 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Eastern FC Pre 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -39 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
7–3 | 2.62 | 1.24 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western United Pioneers FC Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | +48 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.82 | -0.43 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Brentwood SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Brentwood SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Brentwood SC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.13 | -0.20 | 96% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre · Wed Oct 28 at Brentwood SC Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PSA North Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDW | +0.43 | -0.46 | 84% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Quickstrike FC Pre | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WDDLD | +0.25 | -0.24 | 34% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Brentwood SC Pre- White · Sun Sep 20 at Eastern FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Long Island Slammers Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | FC Dutchmen Surf Pre | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | -1.01 | +0.08 | 62% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs STA MOSC Pre · Sat Oct 17 vs Brentwood SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at Eastern FC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Long Island Slammers Pre | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 5 | 1.00 | LDWDL | -0.51 | +0.10 | 6% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | +0.18 | -0.08 | 7% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Eastern FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Brentwood SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at Brentwood SC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | STA MOSC Pre | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 5 | 1.00 | LWDDL | +2.09 | -0.71 | 7% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash Binghamton Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dutchmen Surf Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | WNY Flash Binghamton Pre | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 4 | 0.57 | WDLLL | +0.14 | +0.07 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs STA MOSC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Brentwood SC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Brentwood SC Pre- White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Brentwood SC Pre- White | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.69 | +0.08 | 4% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Quickstrike FC Pre · Sat Sep 26 vs Western United Pioneers FC Pre · Sat Oct 17 at FC Dutchmen Surf Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Eastern FC Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 41 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +3.68 | +0.22 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Quickstrike FC Pre · Sun Sep 27 vs Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dutchmen Surf Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.