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FC Dutchmen Surf Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - North BU12 · 11 teams · FC Dutchmen Surf (all teams)

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5th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
+9 goal diff · 17–8
WDDLlast 4
65% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-1.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 PM

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FC Dutchmen Surf Pre
5th · 1.25 PPG
at
Eastern FC Pre
11th · 0.00 PPG

Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N, field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 8–2 (expected goals 8.8 for, 2.3 against · 2.88 expected points)

Season so farFC Dutchmen Surf PreEastern FC Pre
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-10-0-2
Points per game1.250.00
Goals for / game4.31.0
Goals against / game2.020.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L D D WL L
Biggest win14–2 vs Eastern FC Pre—
Worst loss0–3 vs Brentwood SC Pre0–27 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.89-6.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.01+3.68

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 14–2 vs Eastern FC Pre (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Eastern FC Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.6); blanked in 1 of 2.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eastern FC Pre concede 20.5/game; worst result 0–27 at Western United Pioneers FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Brentwood SC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 8–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 PM at Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Quickstrike FC Pre sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Quickstrike FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastern FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dutchmen Surf Pre – Eastern FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.60 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.20 PPG		 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG		 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 8–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
65% top 4
35% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 30%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 3.00 (+1.75) 1st (2.89) 55 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Brentwood SC Pre 2.40 (+1.15) 2nd (2.02) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 PSA North Pre 1.83 (+0.58) 3rd (1.80) 32 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Quickstrike FC Pre 1.50 (+0.25) 5th (1.52) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dutchmen Surf Pre to Eastern FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+17.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
14–2 1–1 0–4 27–0 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 5th PSA North Pre 3rd Western United Pion… 1st Eastern FC Pre 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 11th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 4th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
02:00 PM
no score posted		 STA MOSC Pre
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -10		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 4–2 2.24 1.45 Bank it
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 Brentwood SC Pre- White
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 4–2 2.20 1.57 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 PM		 Eastern FC Pre
11th · 0-0-2 · GD -39		 Away far trip
Tibbetts Brook Park #3- 355 Midland Ave Yonkers, N		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 8–2 2.88 1.76 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 PSA North Pre
3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.59 1.74 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 STA MOSC Pre
8th · 1-2-2 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Turkey Brook Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.91 1.76 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
04:50 PM		 Long Island Slammers Pre
6th · 1-2-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Moriches Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 3–2 1.72 1.75 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–2 1.10 1.69 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Brentwood SC Pre- White
10th · 0-1-1 · GD -2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.87 1.71 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -18		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 4–2 2.28 1.75 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.79 1.76 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Quickstrike FC Pre
4th · 2-3-1 · GD +1		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 3–2 1.56 1.74 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Western United Pioneers FC Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +48		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–6 0.13 1.64 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM		 Western United Pioneers FC Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +48		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 2–5 0.25 1.56 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM		 Quickstrike FC Pre
4th · 2-3-1 · GD +1		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.91 1.58 Swing game
Sat May 15
11:00 AM		 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–2 2.12 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 23
12:00 PM		 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -18		 Home
DiCaprio Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.53 1.66 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Western United Pioneers FC Pre 4400 502+48 123.00 WWWW -1.82 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 Brentwood SC Pre 5401 178+9 122.40 LWWWW -0.13 -0.20 97% 2.5
3 PSA North Pre 6321 1510+5 111.83 DWWDW +0.43 -0.46 84% 3.5
4 Quickstrike FC Pre 6231 1716+1 91.50 WDDLD +0.25 -0.24 33% 5.2
5 FC Dutchmen Surf Pre 4121 178+9 51.25 WDDL -1.01 +0.08 65% 4.2
6 Long Island Slammers Pre 5122 1717+0 51.00 LDWDL -0.51 +0.10 6% 7.1
7 Fox Soccer Academy Premier Pre 4112 912-3 41.00 LLDW +0.18 -0.08 7% 7.0
8 STA MOSC Pre 5122 1323-10 51.00 LWDDL +2.09 -0.71 6% 7.1
9 WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 7115 1331-18 40.57 WDLLL +0.14 +0.07 0% 9.6
10 Brentwood SC Pre- White 2011 57-2 10.50 LD -0.69 +0.08 3% 7.8
11 Eastern FC Pre 2002 241-39 00.00 LL +3.68 +0.22 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.