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Select Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · Select (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 29 minutes ago.
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7th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-8 goal diff · 11–19
LDLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.6
-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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Select Pre- Blue
7th · 0.80 PPG
vs
SUSA FC Pre- l
8th · 0.75 PPG

Legion Field, Field 1A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.44 expected points)

Season so farSelect Pre- BlueSUSA FC Pre- l
Position7th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-31-0-3
Points per game0.800.75
Goals for / game2.21.3
Goals against / game3.82.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W L D LW L L L
Biggest win4–3 at AC Connecticut Pre- I3–1 vs Connecticut FC United Pre I
Worst loss0–4 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY1–4 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.03-0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.03+0.51

Common opponents: FSA FC Pre — we 2–5; they 0–2. Connecticut FC United Pre I — we 3–3; they 3–1. SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY — we 0–4; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 42%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SUSA FC Pre- l game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Select Pre- Blue – SUSA FC Pre- l) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.83 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 11th▼ down 4
Win
1.17 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Draw
0.83 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 11th▼ down 4
Loss
0.67 PPG		 10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 23%
  10. 10th 23%
  11. 11th 23%
  12. 12th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 2.75 (+1.95) 1st (2.59) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FSA FC Pre 2.40 (+1.60) 2nd (2.22) 49 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 2.00 (+1.20) 4th (1.77) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 East Coast Surf SC Pre 2.00 (+1.20) 5th (1.69) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 1.80 (+1.00) 3rd (1.80) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 Scorpions SC PRE 1.50 (+0.70) 6th (1.58) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Select Pre- Blue to SUSA FC Pre- l through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
7 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–1 2–5 2–0 3–3 1–3 3–0 10–2 2–4 1–6 1–6 3–1 Select Pre- Blue 7th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1st FSA FC Pre 2nd Connecticut FC Unit… 11th Manhattan SC Pre- R… 10th Oakwood Soccer Club… 3rd SUSA FC Pre- l 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 2nd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1		 Away
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–3 0.68 0.78 Upside
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM		 SUSA FC Pre- l
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Legion Field		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.44 0.87 Upside
Thu Oct 29
07:15 PM		 FC Stars Pre- Blue
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–3 0.97 0.89 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–4 0.52 0.85 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–4 0.76 0.84 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.13 0.77 Upside
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- l
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–2 1.13 0.80 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–3 0.96 0.82 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 FC Stars Pre- Blue
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–3 1.32 0.85 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM		 FSA FC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +10		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.30 0.82 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Connecticut FC United Pre I
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 3–3 1.62 0.87 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:00 PM		 Manhattan SC Pre- Red
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.38 0.90 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- I
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–2 1.63 0.94 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.79 0.93 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
25%		 1–2 0.93 0.93 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.68 0.92 Upside
Sun May 16
09:30 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–4 0.49 0.90 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8710 337+26 222.75 WWWWW -0.27 -0.26 100% 1.1
2 FSA FC Pre 5401 199+10 122.40 WLWWW +0.15 -0.29 98% 2.2
3 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW -0.38 -0.07 60% 4.2
4 East Coast Surf SC Pre 2110 21+1 42.00 WD +0.69 -0.16 43% 4.8
5 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1913+6 91.80 WWLWL +0.29 -0.24 67% 4.0
6 Scorpions SC PRE 2101 54+1 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.11 29% 5.4
7 Select Pre- Blue 5113 1119-8 40.80 LDLWL -0.03 +0.07 0% 9.6
8 SUSA FC Pre- l 4103 510-5 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.14 1% 8.4
9 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4103 511-6 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.10 0% 9.7
10 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4103 615-9 30.75 WLLL +0.23 +0.01 0% 9.8
11 Connecticut FC United Pre I 5014 926-17 10.20 LDLLL +0.29 +0.05 0% 11.4
12 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.38 -0.08 3% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.