FSA FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · FSA FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena, Field 7 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.96 expected points)
| Season so far | FSA FC Pre | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | W L W |
| Biggest win | 7–2 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 6–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 1–4 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.38 | +0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.15 | -0.38 |
Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- l — we 2–0; they 3–1. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 7–2; they 1–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 16% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC Pre – Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 72%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 2%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 2.75 (+0.35) | 1st (2.59) | 49 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FSA FC Pre to Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 12th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.96 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
AC Connecticut Pre- I 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:30 PM |
East Coast Surf SC Pre 4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.66 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.10 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre I 11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
CFC Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.65 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM |
Connecticut FC United Pre I 11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
5–1 | 2.80 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
East Coast Surf SC Pre 4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
4–1 | 2.46 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
Select Pre- Blue 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.62 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 2.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.00 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- l 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- I 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 08:30 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 10:30 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–2 | 1.79 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- Blue 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–2 | 2.18 | 2.22 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 7 | +26 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.27 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FSA FC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | +0.15 | -0.29 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.38 | -0.07 | 61% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC United Pre I See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | East Coast Surf SC Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | +0.69 | -0.16 | 42% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | +0.29 | -0.24 | 66% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- l · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Scorpions SC PRE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.34 | -0.11 | 29% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Select Pre- Blue | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | -0.03 | +0.07 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- l · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- Blue See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- l | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +0.51 | -0.14 | 1% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | AC Connecticut Pre- I | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.38 | +0.10 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC United Pre I · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Manhattan SC Pre- Red | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.23 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 31 at East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Connecticut FC United Pre I | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | +0.29 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Stars Pre- Blue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.38 | -0.08 | 3% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- Blue See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.