TableChase Clubs

FSA FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · FSA FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+10 goal diff · 19–9
WLWWWlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2
+0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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FSA FC Pre
2nd · 2.40 PPG
vs

FSA-Farmington Sports Arena, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.96 expected points)

Season so farFSA FC PreOakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-12-0-1
Points per game2.402.00
Goals for / game3.83.3
Goals against / game1.82.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W L WW L W
Biggest win7–2 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre6–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red
Worst loss0–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY1–4 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.38+0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.15-0.38

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- l — we 2–0; they 3–1. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 7–2; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 16% / loss 24%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC Pre – Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.2 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 72%
  3. 3rd 14%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 2.75 (+0.35) 1st (2.59) 49 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FSA FC Pre to Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–3 7–2 4–1 0–3 4–1 3–1 6–1 1–6 5–2 2–4 FSA FC Pre 2nd SUSA FC Pre- l 8th East Meadow Soccer … 5th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1st Select Pre- Blue 7th Manhattan SC Pre- R… 10th Oakwood Soccer Club… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 12th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.96 2.33 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.56 2.36 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
02:30 PM
East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.94 2.31 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 2.35 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
10:00 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.10 2.32 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
TBD
Connecticut FC United Pre I
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
CFC Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
5–1 2.65 2.35 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
10:00 AM
Connecticut FC United Pre I
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.80 2.39 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.66 2.33 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
4–1 2.46 2.34 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.62 2.36 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.01 2.28 Upside
Sat Apr 10
10:00 AM
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.00 2.26 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
10:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- l
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.42 2.27 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre- I
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.27 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
08:30 AM
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.63 2.24 Swing game
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Taunton Forekicks
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–2 1.79 2.22 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
FC Stars Pre- Blue
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.18 2.22 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8710 337+26 222.75 WWWWW -0.27 -0.26 100% 1.1
2 FSA FC Pre 5401 199+10 122.40 WLWWW +0.15 -0.29 98% 2.2
3 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW -0.38 -0.07 61% 4.2
4 East Coast Surf SC Pre 2110 21+1 42.00 WD +0.69 -0.16 42% 4.8
5 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1913+6 91.80 WWLWL +0.29 -0.24 66% 4.0
6 Scorpions SC PRE 2101 54+1 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.11 29% 5.3
7 Select Pre- Blue 5113 1119-8 40.80 LDLWL -0.03 +0.07 0% 9.5
8 SUSA FC Pre- l 4103 510-5 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.14 1% 8.3
9 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4103 511-6 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.10 0% 9.7
10 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4103 615-9 30.75 WLLL +0.23 +0.01 0% 9.7
11 Connecticut FC United Pre I 5014 926-17 10.20 LDLLL +0.29 +0.05 0% 11.4
12 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.38 -0.08 3% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.