TableChase Clubs

Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · Oakwood Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+4 goal diff · 10–6
WLWlast 3
62% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
FSA FC Pre
2nd · 2.40 PPG

FSA-Farmington Sports Arena, Field 7 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.3 against · 0.88 expected points)

Season so farOakwood Soccer Club Pre BlueFSA FC Pre
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-14-0-1
Points per game2.002.40
Goals for / game3.33.8
Goals against / game2.01.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L WW W W L W
Biggest win6–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red7–2 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
Worst loss1–4 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre0–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.61+1.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38+0.15

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- l — we 3–1; they 2–0. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 1–4; they 7–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FSA FC Pre score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FSA FC Pre have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at FSA-Farmington Sports Arena.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FSA FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue – FSA FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4
Win
2.25 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 4
Loss
1.50 PPG
5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
62% top 4
38% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 21%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 2.75 (+0.75) 1st (2.59) 55 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 FSA FC Pre 2.40 (+0.40) 2nd (2.22) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue to FSA FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–2 1–4 2–7 1–3 3–0 1–4 6–1 1–6 4–2 2–5 Oakwood Soccer Club… 3rd SUSA FC Pre- l 8th East Meadow Soccer … 5th Manhattan SC Pre- R… 10th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1st Select Pre- Blue 7th FSA FC Pre 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
09:00 AM
no score posted
East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.62 1.90 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
FSA FC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.88 1.70 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
Connecticut FC United Pre I
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17
Away far trip
CFC Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
4–2 2.39 1.81 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.04 1.85 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
4–1 2.36 1.91 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.70 1.78 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:30 PM
FC Stars Pre- Blue
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM
Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Taunton Forekicks
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 1.75 Upside
Sat Mar 6
11:00 AM
SUSA FC Pre- l
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.14 1.78 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM
AC Connecticut Pre- I
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.31 1.82 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Manhattan SC Pre- Red
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -9
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.16 1.85 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
East Coast Surf SC Pre
4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.33 1.81 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
FC Stars Pre- Blue
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.14 1.83 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM
Connecticut FC United Pre I
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -17
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.62 1.88 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
08:30 AM
FSA FC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Oakwood Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.20 1.84 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 1.77 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Select Pre- Blue
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.07 1.78 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Scorpions SC PRE
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.75 1.78 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.60 1.77 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 8710 337+26 222.75 WWWWW -0.27 -0.26 100% 1.1
2 FSA FC Pre 5401 199+10 122.40 WLWWW +0.15 -0.29 98% 2.2
3 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW -0.38 -0.07 62% 4.2
4 East Coast Surf SC Pre 2110 21+1 42.00 WD +0.69 -0.16 44% 4.8
5 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5302 1913+6 91.80 WWLWL +0.29 -0.24 66% 4.1
6 Scorpions SC PRE 2101 54+1 31.50 WL +0.34 -0.11 27% 5.4
7 Select Pre- Blue 5113 1119-8 40.80 LDLWL -0.03 +0.07 0% 9.6
8 SUSA FC Pre- l 4103 510-5 30.75 LLLW +0.51 -0.14 1% 8.4
9 AC Connecticut Pre- I 4103 511-6 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.10 0% 9.7
10 Manhattan SC Pre- Red 4103 615-9 30.75 WLLL +0.23 +0.01 0% 9.7
11 Connecticut FC United Pre I 5014 926-17 10.20 LDLLL +0.29 +0.05 0% 11.4
12 FC Stars Pre- Blue 1001 25-3 00.00 L +1.38 -0.08 3% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.