Connecticut FC United Pre I
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · Connecticut FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.7 for, 4.1 against · 0.44 expected points)
| Season so far | Connecticut FC United Pre I | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-5 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L D | L W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 6–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red |
| Worst loss | 2–10 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 1–4 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.20 | +0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.17 | +0.13 |
Common opponents: East Meadow Soccer Club Pre — we 1–6; they 1–4. SUSA FC Pre- l — we 1–3; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Connecticut FC United Pre I – Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.14 PPG |
11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.57 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.29 PPG |
11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.14 PPG |
11th— holds | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 11%
- 12th 85%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.23 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 2.75 (+2.58) | 1st (2.57) | 60 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FSA FC Pre | 2.50 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.26) | 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | East Coast Surf SC Pre | 2.00 (+1.83) | 4th (1.70) | 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 4 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 1.80 (+1.63) | 3rd (1.79) | 39 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 5 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue | 1.50 (+1.33) | 5th (1.69) | 32 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 6 | Scorpions SC PRE | 1.50 (+1.33) | 6th (1.54) | 32 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 7 | AC Connecticut Pre- I | 1.20 (+1.03) | 9th (1.14) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- l | 1.20 (+1.03) | 8th (1.17) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 9 | Manhattan SC Pre- Red | 0.75 (+0.58) | 10th (0.87) | 16 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 10 | Select Pre- Blue | 0.67 (+0.50) | 11th (0.80) | 14 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Connecticut FC United Pre I to Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home CFC Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:30 PM |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home CFC Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.20 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
East Coast Surf SC Pre 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Home CFC Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
FC Stars Pre- Blue 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Home CFC Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.81 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
FSA FC Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home CFC Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.21 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM |
FSA FC Pre 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- Red 9th · 1-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.86 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
East Coast Surf SC Pre 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.40 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +26 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Select Pre- Blue 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.13 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- l 8th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
2–5 | 0.36 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- Blue 12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.53 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:30 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.35 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- I 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.44 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 7 | +26 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.29 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FSA FC Pre | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.23 | -0.32 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | East Coast Surf SC Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | +0.94 | -0.17 | 49% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | +0.28 | -0.22 | 69% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- l · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.13 | -0.13 | 50% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC United Pre I · Sun Nov 1 at AC Connecticut Pre- I See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Scorpions SC PRE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.18 | -0.07 | 28% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Connecticut Pre- I | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.78 | +0.19 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- l | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.07 | -0.05 | 2% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Connecticut Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Manhattan SC Pre- Red | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.33 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 31 at East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Select Pre- Blue | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 4 | 0.67 | DLWLL | -0.06 | +0.11 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Connecticut FC United Pre I | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.17 | +0.14 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Sun Nov 1 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Stars Pre- Blue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.34 | -0.06 | 2% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- Red · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- Blue See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.