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TKO Premier SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · TKO Premier SC (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+11 goal diff · 21–10
WWLWWlast 5
76% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8
-0.79 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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TKO Premier SC Pre
3rd · 2.40 PPG
at
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE
1st · 3.00 PPG

Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.9 for, 4.1 against · 0.52 expected points)

Season so farTKO Premier SC PreNationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)4-0-15-0-0
Points per game2.403.00
Goals for / game4.25.2
Goals against / game2.01.2
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L W WW W W W W
Biggest win8–2 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE7–0 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre
Worst loss3–6 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51+2.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.79-0.06

Common opponents: Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre — we 3–6; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE score 5.2/game — well above the league's 3.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Premier Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TKO Premier SC Pre – Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
76% top 4
24% below the top 4
3.8 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 9%
  3. 3rd 33%
  4. 4th 33%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 3.00 (+0.60) 1st (2.76) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 3.00 (+0.60) 2nd (2.68) 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link TKO Premier SC Pre to Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
5 favour them
-6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–6 1–2 2–0 2–4 3–1 4–6 2–6 3–5 0–7 0–6 TKO Premier SC Pre 3rd Cap City Athletic 1… 7th Nationals SC Capita… 10th Nationals SC Macomb… 11th Nationals SC-Oaklan… 4th Michigan Rangers FC… 8th Nationals SC-Macomb… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 16 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 2 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.08 · 1st hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Away far trip
Premier Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.52 2.09 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue
5th · 4-1-1 · GD -1		 Home
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.89 2.06 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 5500 266+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.06 -0.30 100% 1.5
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 1100 80+8 33.00 W -0.17 -0.83 86% 2.3
3 TKO Premier SC Pre 5401 2110+11 122.40 WWLWW -0.79 +1.08 76% 3.8
4 Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 5401 2111+10 122.40 WWLW +0.65 -0.59 88% 3.4
5 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 6411 1314-1 132.17 WWWDW -0.14 +0.40 27% 5.3
6 Detroit City FC West Pre 3201 1013-3 62.00 WLW +2.34 +0.20 10% 7.3
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 4202 1113-2 61.50 LWLW +0.42 -0.20 12% 6.4
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 5212 1616+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.15 +0.35 1% 7.0
9 Portage SC Pre- Green 3021 45-1 20.67 DLD +0.79 -1.03 0% 8.6
10 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 5104 916-7 30.60 LLLL +0.02 +0.26 0% 9.5
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4004 614-8 00.00 LLLL +0.33 +0.66 0% 10.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.