Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM
Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.6 against · 1.84 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue | Detroit City FC West Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Michigan Burn Pre | 5–2 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 2–9 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.17 | -0.83 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | +2.34 |
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 15% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Detroit City FC West Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue – Detroit City FC West Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.29 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 31%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | 3.00 (+0.83) | 1st (2.76) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 3.00 (+0.83) | 2nd (2.68) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 2.40 (+0.23) | 4th (2.06) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 4 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE | 2.40 (+0.23) | 3rd (2.18) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue to Detroit City FC West Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 3rd hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:30 AM |
Detroit City FC West Pre 6th · 2-0-1 · GD -3 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.84 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Fri Oct 30 07:00 PM |
Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away Evolution Sportsplex Dome |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.88 | 1.97 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC Pre 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.95 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away Premier Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.37 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 11:00 AM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.62 | 1.68 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.06 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.17 | -0.83 | 87% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 at Detroit City FC West Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.79 | +1.08 | 77% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLW | +0.65 | -0.59 | 87% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sun Oct 18 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWDW | -0.14 | +0.40 | 27% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +2.34 | +0.20 | 10% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | +0.42 | -0.20 | 12% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sat Apr 24 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | DLLWW | +0.15 | +0.35 | 1% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Jun 6 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | DLD | +0.79 | -1.03 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLL | +0.02 | +0.26 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 18 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.33 | +0.66 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Apr 11 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sat May 8 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.