Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Premier Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.9 against · 2.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | TKO Premier SC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 8–2 at Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE |
| Worst loss | — | 3–6 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.34 | +0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | -0.79 |
Common opponents: Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre — we 2–1; they 3–6.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the TKO Premier SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE – TKO Premier SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 55%
- 2nd 39%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE to TKO Premier SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 8th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
TKO Premier SC Pre 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–1 | 2.36 | 2.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.54 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.54 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.78 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 5th · 4-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.53 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 09:30 AM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home Premier Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
5–1 | 2.77 | 2.76 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.06 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.17 | -0.83 | 87% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 at Detroit City FC West Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.79 | +1.08 | 77% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLW | +0.65 | -0.59 | 87% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sun Oct 18 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWDW | -0.14 | +0.40 | 27% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at TKO Premier SC Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +2.34 | +0.20 | 10% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | +0.42 | -0.20 | 12% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sat Apr 24 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | DLLWW | +0.15 | +0.35 | 1% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Jun 6 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | DLD | +0.79 | -1.03 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLL | +0.02 | +0.26 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 18 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.33 | +0.66 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Apr 11 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sat May 8 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.