TableChase Clubs

Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+10 goal diff · 21–11
WWLWlast 4
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
+0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 07:00 PM

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Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE
3rd · 2.40 PPG
vs
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue
4th · 2.29 PPG

Evolution Sportsplex Dome, 11v11 A ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.3 against · 1.94 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUENationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-15-1-1
Points per game2.402.29
Goals for / game4.22.1
Goals against / game2.22.1
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L W WW W D W W
Biggest win6–0 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre2–0 vs Michigan Burn Pre
Worst loss2–6 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE0–8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.70-0.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.72-0.28

Common opponents: Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY — we 6–4; they 2–0. Michigan Burn Pre — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 59% / draw 16% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE – Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 16%
  3. 3rd 52%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 3.00 (+0.60) 1st (2.84) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 3.00 (+0.60) 2nd (2.69) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE to Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–4 0–2 2–6 7–0 3–4 9–2 1–2 2–1 1–1 Nationals SC-Oaklan… 3rd Nationals SC Macomb… 11th Nationals SC-Macomb… 1st Michigan Rangers FC… 8th Detroit City FC Wes… 7th Portage SC Pre- Gre… 9th Nationals SC-Macomb… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 16 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.58 · 9th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Aug 30
12:00 PM
no score posted		 Michigan Rangers FC Pre
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
28th Ave 		●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 3–3 1.49 2.25 Swing game
Sun Sep 20
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Evolution Sportsplex Dome		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 4–2 2.37 2.27 Bank it
Sun Oct 18
05:00 PM
no score posted		 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Capital Sportsplex Lansing		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 2.24 Swing game
Fri Oct 30
07:00 PM		 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue
4th · 5-1-1 · GD +0		 Home
Evolution Sportsplex Dome		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.94 2.21 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Detroit City FC West Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Independence Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 4–2 1.96 2.18 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 6600 306+24 183.00 WWWWW -0.03 -0.45 100% 1.3
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 1100 80+8 33.00 W -0.12 -0.85 87% 2.4
3 Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 5401 2111+10 122.40 WWLW +0.72 -0.58 88% 3.3
4 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 7511 1515+0 162.29 WWDWW -0.28 +0.60 40% 4.8
5 TKO Premier SC Pre 6402 2114+7 122.00 WLWWL +0.15 -0.12 66% 4.0
6 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 4202 1113-2 61.50 LWLW +0.35 -0.19 13% 6.5
7 Detroit City FC West Pre 4202 1115-4 61.50 WLWL +1.13 +0.29 5% 7.8
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 5212 1616+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.19 +0.35 1% 7.0
9 Portage SC Pre- Green 3021 45-1 20.67 DLD +0.86 -1.03 0% 8.4
10 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 5104 916-7 30.60 LLLL -0.05 +0.28 0% 9.5
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4004 614-8 00.00 LLLL +0.23 +0.73 0% 10.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.