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Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)

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2nd
1-0-0 record · 1 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 8–0
Wlast 1
87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Aug 28, 07:00 PM

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Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Detroit City FC West Pre
7th · 1.50 PPG

Independence Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.7 for, 2.3 against · 2.39 expected points)

Season so farNationals SC Oakland Pre- BlueDetroit City FC West Pre
Position2nd7th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-02-0-2
Points per game3.001.50
Goals for / game8.02.8
Goals against / game0.03.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)WL W L W
Biggest win8–0 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue5–2 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE
Worst loss—2–9 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.76-0.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.12+1.13

Common opponents: Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue — we 8–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 4–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:00 PM at Independence Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Detroit City FC West Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue – Detroit City FC West Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Aug 24 – Sun Aug 30); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG		 6th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

29% finish 1st
87% top 4
13% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 29%
  2. 2nd 50%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.84) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue to Detroit City FC West Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+9.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 2–1 Nationals SC Oaklan… 2nd Nationals SC-Macomb… 4th Detroit City FC Wes… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 16 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.85 · 10th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Aug 28
07:00 PM
no score posted		 Detroit City FC West Pre
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4		 Away
Independence Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.39 2.69 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 6600 306+24 183.00 WWWWW -0.03 -0.45 100% 1.3
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 1100 80+8 33.00 W -0.12 -0.85 87% 2.4
3 Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 5401 2111+10 122.40 WWLW +0.72 -0.58 88% 3.3
4 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 7511 1515+0 162.29 WWDWW -0.28 +0.60 41% 4.8
5 TKO Premier SC Pre 6402 2114+7 122.00 WLWWL +0.15 -0.12 67% 4.0
6 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 4202 1113-2 61.50 LWLW +0.35 -0.19 13% 6.5
7 Detroit City FC West Pre 4202 1115-4 61.50 WLWL +1.13 +0.29 4% 7.9
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 5212 1616+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.19 +0.35 1% 7.0
9 Portage SC Pre- Green 3021 45-1 20.67 DLD +0.86 -1.03 0% 8.4
10 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 5104 916-7 30.60 LLLL -0.05 +0.28 0% 9.6
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4004 614-8 00.00 LLLL +0.23 +0.73 0% 10.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.