Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Portage Soccer Complex, Field 2S ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.7 against · 0.81 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | Portage SC Pre- Green |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 0-2-1 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | D L D |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at TKO Premier SC Pre | 1–2 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.03 | +0.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.05 | +0.86 |
Common opponents: Michigan Rangers FC Pre — we 3–5; they 2–2. Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue — we 2–4; they 1–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Portage SC Pre- Green average 1.3 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 0 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at TKO Premier SC Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Portage Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Portage SC Pre- Green sit 9th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.60.A point moves us above Portage SC Pre- Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portage SC Pre- Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Capital Area Pre – Portage SC Pre- Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 24%
- 10th 52%
- 11th 12%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | 3.00 (+2.40) | 1st (2.84) | 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 3.00 (+2.40) | 2nd (2.69) | 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE | 2.40 (+1.80) | 3rd (2.18) | 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue | 2.29 (+1.69) | 5th (1.79) | 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 2.00 (+1.40) | 4th (1.95) | 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 1.50 (+0.90) | 6th (1.49) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 7 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 1.50 (+0.90) | 8th (1.22) | 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 1.40 (+0.80) | 7th (1.43) | 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 9 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 0.67 (+0.07) | 9th (1.00) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Capital Area Pre to Portage SC Pre- Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.28 · 5th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 09:00 AM no score posted |
Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Evolution Sportsplex Dome |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.52 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 18 05:00 PM no score posted |
Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Portage SC Pre- Green 9th · 0-2-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.26 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.62 | 0.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 12:30 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA MI Ann Arbor Pre |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–3 | 1.08 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 09:30 AM |
Detroit City FC West Pre 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.45 | 0.80 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6 | +24 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.03 | -0.45 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL GRAY · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sat Apr 10 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.12 | -0.85 | 87% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 at Detroit City FC West Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLW | +0.72 | -0.58 | 88% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Sep 20 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sun Oct 18 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.28 | +0.60 | 41% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at TKO Premier SC Pre · Sun Apr 18 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | TKO Premier SC Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWL | +0.15 | -0.12 | 67% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | +0.35 | -0.19 | 13% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Detroit City FC West Pre · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO Pre- GMA · Sat Apr 24 vs Nationals SC Genesee Pre- BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Detroit City FC West Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +1.13 | +0.29 | 4% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Aug 28 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Nov 8 at Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | DLLWW | +0.19 | +0.35 | 1% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Jun 6 vs Michigan Burn Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Portage SC Pre- Green | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | DLD | +0.86 | -1.03 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nationals SC Capital Area Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLL | -0.05 | +0.28 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 18 vs Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE · Sun Oct 25 at Portage SC Pre- Green See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.23 | +0.73 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Apr 11 at Nationals SC Capital Area Pre · Sat May 8 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.