TableChase Clubs

Portage SC Pre- Green

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- GMA BU12 · 11 teams · Portage Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
9th
0-2-1 record · 3 played
0.67 points per game
-1 goal diff · 4–5
DLDlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5
+0.79 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Portage SC Pre- Green
9th · 0.67 PPG
vs
Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
10th · 0.60 PPG

Portage Soccer Complex, Field 2S ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.6 against · 2.00 expected points)

Season so farPortage SC Pre- GreenNationals SC Capital Area Pre
Position9th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-11-0-4
Points per game0.670.60
Goals for / game1.31.8
Goals against / game1.73.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D L DL L L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss1–2 at Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE0–2 at TKO Premier SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.04-1.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.79+0.02

Common opponents: Michigan Rangers FC Pre — we 2–2; they 3–5. Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue — we 1–1; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 61% / draw 17% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Nationals SC Capital Area Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Capital Area Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Portage SC Pre- Green – Nationals SC Capital Area Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
0.75 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 20%
  8. 8th 30%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 28%
  11. 11th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.76) 10 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 3.00 (+2.33) 2nd (2.68) 10 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 TKO Premier SC Pre 2.40 (+1.73) 4th (2.06) 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 2.40 (+1.73) 3rd (2.18) 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 2.17 (+1.50) 5th (1.68) 7 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Detroit City FC West Pre 2.00 (+1.33) 8th (1.37) 6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 1.50 (+0.83) 6th (1.49) 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 1.40 (+0.73) 7th (1.43) 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

7 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Portage SC Pre- Green to Nationals SC Capital Area Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 4–2 2–2 5–3 3–4 1–2 2–1 4–2 7–0 6–0 Portage SC Pre- Gre… 9th Nationals SC-Macomb… 5th Michigan Rangers FC… 8th Nationals SC-Macomb… 1st Cap City Athletic 1… 7th Nationals SC Capita… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 16 Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 2 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.03 · 11th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM		 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.00 1.00 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL BLUE 5500 266+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.06 -0.30 100% 1.5
2 Nationals SC Oakland Pre- Blue 1100 80+8 33.00 W -0.17 -0.83 87% 2.3
3 TKO Premier SC Pre 5401 2110+11 122.40 WWLWW -0.79 +1.08 77% 3.8
4 Nationals SC-Oakland PreECNL BLUE 5401 2111+10 122.40 WWLW +0.65 -0.59 87% 3.4
5 Nationals SC-Macomb PreECNL Blue 6411 1314-1 132.17 WWWDW -0.14 +0.40 27% 5.3
6 Detroit City FC West Pre 3201 1013-3 62.00 WLW +2.34 +0.20 9% 7.3
7 Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre 4202 1113-2 61.50 LWLW +0.42 -0.20 12% 6.5
8 Michigan Rangers FC Pre 5212 1616+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.15 +0.35 1% 7.0
9 Portage SC Pre- Green 3021 45-1 20.67 DLD +0.79 -1.03 0% 8.5
10 Nationals SC Capital Area Pre 5104 916-7 30.60 LLLL +0.02 +0.26 0% 9.6
11 Nationals SC Macomb Pre- GRAY 4004 614-8 00.00 LLLL +0.33 +0.66 0% 10.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.