LTFC STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · LTFC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
ASP / CC, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.57 expected points)
| Season so far | LTFC STXCL | Sting CC STXCL Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 2-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L W | W W L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at AHFC WEST STXCL | 2–0 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs AHFC EAST STXCL | 0–6 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.12 | -0.36 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | -0.06 |
Common opponents: AHFC EAST STXCL — we 0–2; they 1–2. AHFC NW STXCL — we 0–0; they 2–2.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sting CC STXCL Martinez concede 2.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs AHFC EAST STXCL, 0–0 vs AHFC NW STXCL, 0–1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 21% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at ASP / CC.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Challenge STXCL sit 11th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.A point moves us above Challenge STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sting CC STXCL Martinez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LTFC STXCL – Sting CC STXCL Martinez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.43 PPG |
9th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 3 |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
9th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 17%
- 9th 18%
- 10th 16%
- 11th 11%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 3%
- 14th 1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 3.00 (+1.83) | 1st (2.20) | 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | 2.33 (+1.16) | 2nd (2.11) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 2.25 (+1.08) | 3rd (1.88) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 2.25 (+1.08) | 6th (1.76) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 1.75 (+0.58) | 4th (1.83) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 1.67 (+0.50) | 5th (1.78) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 7 | AHFC NW STXCL | 1.67 (+0.50) | 7th (1.62) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 8 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 1.50 (+0.33) | 12th (1.12) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 9 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 1.40 (+0.23) | 10th (1.27) | A point next game |
| 10 | FC Westlake STXCL | 1.33 (+0.16) | 8th (1.38) | A point next game |
| 11 | Challenge STXCL | 1.20 (+0.03) | 11th (1.14) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link LTFC STXCL to Sting CC STXCL Martinez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 12th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Sting CC STXCL Martinez 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.57 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +7 |
Away Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.79 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.22 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.80 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.81 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Imperial SC STXCL 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
SG1 STXCL 14th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.18 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STXCL White 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Lonestar SAT STXCL 8th · 3-0-3 · GD -9 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 1.37 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.40 | +0.05 | 91% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 15 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 14 | 2.33 | WWDWW | -0.12 | -0.01 | 87% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.12 | -0.08 | 57% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.03 | -0.02 | 40% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.25 | +0.03 | 51% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDWW | -0.20 | +0.02 | 46% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AHFC NW STXCL | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DDDWW | -0.07 | +0.02 | 19% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLL | +0.35 | -0.11 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | -0.06 | +0.05 | 2% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Westlake STXCL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LDLDW | +0.30 | -0.18 | 2% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Challenge STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.28 | +0.18 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLDLL | +0.03 | -0.03 | 4% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | DLWLL | +0.52 | -0.26 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Challenge STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SG1 STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | -0.17 | +0.19 | 0% | 14.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.14 | +0.15 | 0% | 14.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.11 | +0.13 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.