TableChase Clubs

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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5th
2-1-1 record · 4 played
1.75 points per game
+6 goal diff · 8–2
WLWDlast 4
57% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I
5th · 1.75 PPG
at
AHFC WEST STXCL
4th · 2.25 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.3 against · 1.69 expected points)

Season so farAHFC CENTRAL STXCL IAHFC WEST STXCL
Position5th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-13-0-1
Points per game1.752.25
Goals for / game2.02.3
Goals against / game0.51.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D W L WW W W L
Biggest win6–0 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez4–1 at SG1 STXCL
Worst loss0–1 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL0–4 vs LTFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.77+0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.25-0.03

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    AHFC WEST STXCL score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 23% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    AHFC WEST STXCL have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dyess Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC WEST STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I – AHFC WEST STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.60 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 4
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.60 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.40 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
57% top 4
43% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 14%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Imperial SC STXCL 3.00 (+1.25) 1st (2.20) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 2.33 (+0.58) 2nd (2.11) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 AHFC EAST STXCL 2.25 (+0.50) 3rd (1.88) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4 AHFC WEST STXCL 2.25 (+0.50) 6th (1.76) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I to AHFC WEST STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 1–4 1–0 0–3 2–3 0–4 1–0 4–0 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 5th Lonestar SAT STXCL 8th Lonestar ATX STH ST… 13th SG1 STXCL 14th Lonestar ATX STXCL … 6th LTFC STXCL 12th AHFC WEST STXCL 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 7th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM		 AHFC WEST STXCL
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +2		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.69 1.74 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM		 LTFC STXCL
12th · 2-1-3 · GD +1		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 1–0 1.98 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
04:00 PM		 FC Westlake STXCL
10th · 2-2-2 · GD -1		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–0 1.86 1.79 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
05:00 PM		 Lonestar ATX STXCL White
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Westcreek		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.33 1.73 Upside
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM		 Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Westcreek		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–0 2.35 1.80 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM		 AHFC NW STXCL
7th · 2-4-0 · GD +3		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 0–0 1.46 1.77 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 Challenge STXCL
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.19 1.81 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
10:00 AM		 AHFC EAST STXCL
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–0 1.61 1.79 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM		 Imperial SC STXCL
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.54 1.77 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
02:00 PM		 SG1 STXCL
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -7		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–0 2.32 1.81 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM		 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -5		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 1–0 2.15 1.83 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Imperial SC STXCL 4400 145+9 123.00 WWWW -0.40 +0.05 92% 2.1
2 Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 6420 103+7 142.33 WWDWW -0.12 -0.01 88% 2.6
3 AHFC EAST STXCL 4301 52+3 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.08 56% 4.4
4 AHFC WEST STXCL 4301 97+2 92.25 LWWW -0.03 -0.02 36% 5.4
5 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 4211 82+6 71.75 WLWD -0.25 +0.03 57% 4.4
6 Lonestar ATX STXCL White 6312 157+8 101.67 WLDWW -0.20 +0.02 45% 5.0
7 AHFC NW STXCL 6240 63+3 101.67 DDDWW -0.07 +0.02 17% 6.6
8 Lonestar SAT STXCL 6303 514-9 91.50 WWLLL +0.35 -0.11 0% 11.2
9 Sting CC STXCL Martinez 5212 811-3 71.40 LDLWW -0.06 +0.05 1% 9.8
10 FC Westlake STXCL 6222 34-1 81.33 LDLDW +0.30 -0.18 2% 8.8
11 Challenge STXCL 5203 78-1 61.20 LLWWL -0.28 +0.18 1% 10.9
12 LTFC STXCL 6213 98+1 71.17 WLDLL +0.03 -0.03 4% 8.6
13 Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 6114 39-6 40.67 DLWLL +0.52 -0.26 0% 12.5
14 SG1 STXCL 5104 411-7 30.60 WLLLL -0.17 +0.19 0% 14.3
15 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 5014 27-5 10.20 LDLLL -0.14 +0.15 0% 14.4
16 Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.13 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.