TableChase Clubs

AHFC EAST STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+3 goal diff · 5–2
WLWWlast 4
55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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AHFC EAST STXCL
3rd · 2.25 PPG
vs
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II
15th · 0.20 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.5 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farAHFC EAST STXCLAHFC CENTRAL STXCL II
Position3rd15th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-10-1-4
Points per game2.250.20
Goals for / game1.30.4
Goals against / game0.51.4
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)W W L WL L L D L
Biggest win2–0 at LTFC STXCL—
Worst loss0–1 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red0–2 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.44-0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.12-0.14

Common opponents: Sting CC STXCL Martinez — we 2–1; they 0–2. Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red — we 0–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 26% / loss 12%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red sit 2nd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC EAST STXCL – AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.80 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
55% top 4
45% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 14%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Imperial SC STXCL 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.20) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2 Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 2.33 (+0.08) 2nd (2.11) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC EAST STXCL to AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
0 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 2–1 2–0 1–1 1–0 2–0 0–1 1–1 2–0 1–0 0–0 2–2 0–0 3–0 1–0 AHFC EAST STXCL 3rd Boerne Soccer Club … 2nd Sting CC STXCL Mart… 9th LTFC STXCL 12th FC Westlake STXCL 10th AHFC NW STXCL 7th Lonestar ATX STH ST… 13th Lonestar SAT STXCL 8th AHFC CENTRAL STXCL … 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 13th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM		 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -5		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 1–0 2.11 2.22 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM		 SG1 STXCL
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 1–0 2.28 2.23 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM		 Lonestar ATX STXCL White
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 2.11 Upside
Sun Nov 15
04:00 PM		 Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 1–0 2.32 2.13 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
10:00 AM		 Imperial SC STXCL
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.07 2.02 Upside
Sat Feb 27
01:00 PM		 Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold
13th · 1-1-4 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Town & Country		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–0 1.88 2.00 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
10:00 AM		 Lonestar SAT STXCL
8th · 3-0-3 · GD -9		 Away far trip
ASP / CC		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 1–0 2.11 2.01 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM		 Challenge STXCL
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–0 1.74 1.99 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
10:00 AM		 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 0–1 1.08 1.92 Upside
Sat Apr 17
08:00 AM		 AHFC NW STXCL
7th · 2-4-0 · GD +3		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 0–0 1.46 1.89 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM		 AHFC WEST STXCL
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
Dyess Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.70 1.88 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Imperial SC STXCL 4400 145+9 123.00 WWWW -0.40 +0.05 91% 2.2
2 Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 6420 103+7 142.33 WWDWW -0.12 -0.01 87% 2.6
3 AHFC EAST STXCL 4301 52+3 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.08 55% 4.4
4 AHFC WEST STXCL 4301 97+2 92.25 LWWW -0.03 -0.02 39% 5.3
5 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 4211 82+6 71.75 WLWD -0.25 +0.03 55% 4.5
6 Lonestar ATX STXCL White 6312 157+8 101.67 WLDWW -0.20 +0.02 47% 4.8
7 AHFC NW STXCL 6240 63+3 101.67 DDDWW -0.07 +0.02 18% 6.5
8 Lonestar SAT STXCL 6303 514-9 91.50 WWLLL +0.35 -0.11 0% 11.3
9 Sting CC STXCL Martinez 5212 811-3 71.40 LDLWW -0.06 +0.05 2% 9.9
10 FC Westlake STXCL 6222 34-1 81.33 LDLDW +0.30 -0.18 3% 8.8
11 Challenge STXCL 5203 78-1 61.20 LLWWL -0.28 +0.18 1% 10.9
12 LTFC STXCL 6213 98+1 71.17 WLDLL +0.03 -0.03 4% 8.7
13 Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 6114 39-6 40.67 DLWLL +0.52 -0.26 0% 12.5
14 SG1 STXCL 5104 411-7 30.60 WLLLL -0.17 +0.19 0% 14.3
15 AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 5014 27-5 10.20 LDLLL -0.14 +0.15 0% 14.4
16 Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 4004 310-7 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.13 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.