Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · Boerne SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM
Bee Creek Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.9 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | LTFC STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W W | L L D L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Lonestar SAT STXCL | 4–0 at AHFC WEST STXCL |
| Worst loss | — | 0–2 vs AHFC EAST STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.80 | +0.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.06 | +0.07 |
Common opponents: AHFC NW STXCL — we 1–1; they 0–0. AHFC EAST STXCL — we 1–0; they 0–2. Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold — we 2–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 23% / loss 18%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LTFC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red – LTFC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.43 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.43 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.14 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 31%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 3.00 (+0.67) | 1st (2.20) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red to LTFC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 11th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
LTFC STXCL 12th · 2-1-3 · GD +1 |
Home Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
FC Westlake STXCL 10th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.88 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
SG1 STXCL 14th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 2.25 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Imperial SC STXCL 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
Challenge STXCL 11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.21 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
AHFC WEST STXCL 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Sting CC STXCL Martinez 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.32 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Town & Country |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STXCL White 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Town & Country |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 2.13 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.40 | +0.05 | 92% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 15 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 14 | 2.33 | WWDWW | -0.06 | -0.05 | 90% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.13 | -0.08 | 58% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.09 | +0.00 | 38% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.19 | +0.01 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | AHFC NW STXCL | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | DDDWW | -0.07 | +0.02 | 23% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLL | +0.31 | -0.08 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLDW | -0.13 | -0.00 | 29% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | -0.05 | +0.05 | 2% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Westlake STXCL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LDLDW | +0.26 | -0.15 | 3% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Challenge STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.29 | +0.19 | 1% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLDLL | +0.07 | -0.06 | 5% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.45 | -0.18 | 1% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC WEST STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SG1 STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | -0.23 | +0.23 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.08 | +0.12 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.12 | +0.14 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.