Challenge STXCL

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

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11th

2-0-3 record · 5 played

1.20 points per game

-1 goal diff · 7–8

LLWWLlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.8

-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 10:00 AM

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Challenge STXCL
11th · 1.20 PPG

AHFC WEST STXCL
4th · 2.25 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 9 ↗

23% 19% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.89 expected points)

Season so far	Challenge STXCL	AHFC WEST STXCL
Position	11th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-3	3-0-1
Points per game	1.20	2.25
Goals for / game	1.4	2.3
Goals against / game	1.6	1.8
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L W W L L	W W W L
Biggest win	3–1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold	4–1 at SG1 STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 at AHFC NW STXCL	0–4 vs LTFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.24	+0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.28	-0.03

Common opponents: FC Westlake STXCL — we 0–1; they 2–0. LTFC STXCL — we 3–4; they 0–4. SG1 STXCL — we 1–0; they 4–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
AHFC WEST STXCL score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Westlake STXCL, 0–2 at AHFC NW STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
AHFC WEST STXCL have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Westlake STXCL sit 10th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.20.
A point moves us above FC Westlake STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC WEST STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge STXCL – AHFC WEST STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	12th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 1
Win 1.50 PPG	8th▲ up 3	8th▲ up 3	10th▲ up 1
Draw 1.17 PPG	12th▼ down 1	10th▲ up 1	12th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	12th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

10.8 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 1%
6th 2%
7th 4%
8th 6%
9th 11%
10th 14%
11th 21%
12th 18%
13th 12%
14th 6%
15th 2%
16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Imperial SC STXCL	3.00 (+1.80)	1st (2.20)	39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red	2.33 (+1.13)	2nd (2.11)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3	AHFC EAST STXCL	2.25 (+1.05)	3rd (1.88)	28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4	AHFC WEST STXCL	2.25 (+1.05)	6th (1.76)	28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I	1.75 (+0.55)	4th (1.83)	21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6	Lonestar ATX STXCL White	1.67 (+0.47)	5th (1.78)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7	AHFC NW STXCL	1.67 (+0.47)	7th (1.62)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8	Lonestar SAT STXCL	1.50 (+0.30)	12th (1.12)	Win next game
9	Sting CC STXCL Martinez	1.40 (+0.20)	10th (1.27)	A point next game
10	FC Westlake STXCL	1.33 (+0.13)	8th (1.38)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Challenge STXCL to AHFC WEST STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

7 favour them

-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 2nd hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM	AHFC WEST STXCL 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +2	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.15	Upside
Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM	Lonestar SAT STXCL 8th · 3-0-3 · GD -9	Home Zube Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.98	1.27	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -6	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–0	1.76	1.33	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +7	Away far trip Classics Elite Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	14%	0–2	0.61	1.25	Upside
Sat Feb 27 02:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Martinez 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -3	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–2	1.30	1.25	Upside
Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM	AHFC EAST STXCL 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	0–1	1.00	1.23	Upside
Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +6	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	14%	0–2	0.62	1.18	Upside
Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -5	Away Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–0	1.61	1.21	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STXCL White 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8	Away far trip Town & Country	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.60	1.17	Upside
Sat Apr 24 12:00 PM	Imperial SC STXCL 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.73	1.14	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Imperial SC STXCL

3.00

WWWW

-0.40

+0.05

91%

2.1

W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 15 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	3–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red

2.33

WWDWW

-0.12

-0.01

87%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

2.25

WLWW

+0.12

-0.08

57%

4.4

W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–0	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC WEST STXCL

2.25

LWWW

-0.03

-0.02

40%

5.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I

1.75

WLWD

-0.25

+0.03

51%

4.6

D	Sun Sep 20	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–0	37%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STXCL White

1.67

WLDWW

-0.20

+0.02

46%

4.9

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	3–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–1	69%
·	Fri Apr 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC NW STXCL

1.67

DDDWW

-0.07

+0.02

19%

6.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–0	66%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–0	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–0	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT STXCL

-9

1.50

WWLLL

+0.35

-0.11

11.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Martinez

-3

1.40

LDLWW

-0.06

+0.05

9.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–6
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-1

1.33

LDLDW

+0.30

-0.18

8.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	0–0	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–0	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL

-1

1.20

LLWWL

-0.28

+0.18

10.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 8 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

1.17

WLDLL

+0.03

-0.03

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-6

0.67

DLWLL

+0.52

-0.26

12.5

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Challenge STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–0	20%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Fri Apr 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–0	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

-7

0.60

WLLLL

-0.17

+0.19

14.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge STXCL (11th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	2–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	0–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II

-5

0.20

LDLLL

-0.14

+0.15

14.3

L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–0	22%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (16th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–0	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-7

0.00

LLLL

-0.11

+0.13

15.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting CC STXCL Martinez (9th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge STXCL (11th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC STXCL (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SG1 STXCL (14th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake STXCL (10th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	LTFC STXCL (12th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC NW STXCL (7th)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (15th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Lonestar SAT STXCL (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Fri Apr 16	at	Lonestar ATX STXCL White (6th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Fri Apr 23	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.