Lonestar SAT STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU14 · 16 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:00 PM
Zube Park , Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.1 against · 0.84 expected points)
| Season so far | Lonestar SAT STXCL | Challenge STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | L W W L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II | 3–1 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold |
| Worst loss | 1–6 vs Imperial SC STXCL | 0–2 at AHFC NW STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.90 | -0.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.42 | -0.38 |
Common opponents: SG1 STXCL — we 2–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red, 0–4 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Zube Park .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Lonestar ATX STXCL White sit 6th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Lonestar ATX STXCL White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Challenge STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar SAT STXCL – Challenge STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.29 PPG |
11th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 6 |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds | 10th▼ down 3 |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 | 12th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
11th▼ down 4 | 10th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 7%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 13%
- 11th 18%
- 12th 18%
- 13th 15%
- 14th 7%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.42) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | 2.33 (+0.83) | 2nd (2.09) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 2.25 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.88) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 2.25 (+0.75) | 6th (1.77) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 1.75 (+0.25) | 4th (1.84) | 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 1.67 (+0.17) | 5th (1.81) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Lonestar SAT STXCL to Challenge STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.16 · 15th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Challenge STXCL 11th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM |
AHFC WEST STXCL 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.51 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM |
AHFC NW STXCL 8th · 2-4-1 · GD -1 |
Home Classics Elite Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.03 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 10:00 AM |
FC Westlake STXCL 10th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 1.03 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 10:00 AM |
AHFC EAST STXCL 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–1 | 0.68 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
Sting CC STXCL Martinez 9th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Town & Country |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.30 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
LTFC STXCL 12th · 2-1-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 1.15 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Imperial SC STXCL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.31 | +0.01 | 99% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Nov 15 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sat Feb 20 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 14 | 2.33 | WWDWW | -0.18 | +0.03 | 86% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SG1 STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.10 | -0.07 | 57% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.03 | -0.03 | 40% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.25 | +0.03 | 54% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Westlake STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lonestar ATX STXCL White | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDWW | -0.13 | -0.03 | 52% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lonestar SAT STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLL | +0.42 | -0.16 | 1% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Challenge STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AHFC NW STXCL | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | DDWWL | +0.17 | -0.11 | 3% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White · Sat Nov 21 at Lonestar SAT STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting CC STXCL Martinez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | -0.13 | +0.09 | 1% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STXCL White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Westlake STXCL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LDLDW | +0.23 | -0.14 | 3% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Challenge STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.38 | +0.22 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | WLDLL | -0.04 | +0.02 | 3% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | DLWLL | +0.58 | -0.31 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Challenge STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SG1 STXCL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | -0.17 | +0.19 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Boerne Soccer Club - STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs Sting CC STXCL Martinez See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.22 | +0.18 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.03 | +0.10 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.39 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.