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Slammers FC HB Koge

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 10–4
LWWWWlast 5
70% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Slammers FC HB Koge
3rd · 2.50 PPG
at
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.5 against · 0.90 expected points)

Season so farSlammers FC HB KogeSLAMMERS FC
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-14-1-0
Points per game2.502.60
Goals for / game1.72.6
Goals against / game0.70.4
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W LD W W W W
Biggest win3–0 at LA Breakers4–0 at Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL
Worst loss1–2 at San Diego Surf—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.57+1.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-0.19

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SLAMMERS FC score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SLAMMERS FC concede only 0.4/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Orange County Great Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLAMMERS FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Slammers FC HB Koge – SLAMMERS FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.14 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.57 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.29 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
70% top 4
30% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.67 (+0.17) 1st (2.41) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+0.10) 2nd (2.28) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Slammers FC HB Koge to SLAMMERS FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
5 favour them
-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 1–0 2–0 0–4 3–0 1–6 2–2 0–4 1–2 2–1 0–2 1–4 Slammers FC HB Koge 3rd Pateadores Soccer C… 8th Rebels SC 14th LA Breakers 17th San Diego Surf 4th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 16th Beach Futbol Club G… 5th Legends FC - Del Mar 9th SLAMMERS FC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
0–1 0.90 2.27 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:45 AM
LAFC
12th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.86 2.22 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 1.99 2.19 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
TBD
Eagles SC
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
0–0 1.27 2.10 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -12
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.39 2.13 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.98 2.03 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.40 1.98 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.89 1.98 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Blues
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.03 1.98 Swing game
Sun May 23
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.01 1.98 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 6510 152+13 162.67 WWWWW -0.07 -0.16 99% 1.5
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 132+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.19 -0.05 97% 2.1
3 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 104+6 152.50 LWWWW -0.38 +0.10 70% 3.9
4 San Diego Surf 6402 129+3 122.00 WLLWW -0.02 -0.07 27% 5.9
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 117+4 71.75 WWLD +0.20 -0.13 41% 5.4
6 Eagles SC 5221 63+3 81.60 DWDLW +0.27 -0.22 37% 5.4
7 Arizona Arsenal 2101 32+1 31.50 WL +0.22 -0.08 19% 7.2
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 5203 64+2 61.20 LLWLW +0.03 -0.08 6% 8.5
9 Legends FC - Del Mar 6213 1011-1 71.17 LLWDL -0.02 -0.03 1% 11.0
10 Phoenix Rising FC 6213 911-2 71.17 WLWDL +0.03 -0.04 1% 10.4
11 Blues 3102 46-2 31.00 WLL +0.42 -0.11 1% 10.9
12 LAFC 5122 710-3 51.00 LWDDL +0.12 -0.07 1% 11.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3102 36-3 31.00 WLL +0.46 -0.10 1% 11.3
14 Rebels SC 4103 47-3 30.75 LLLW -0.37 +0.11 0% 13.4
15 Sporting California USA 4103 611-5 30.75 LLWL +0.56 -0.17 0% 11.9
16 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 214-12 10.20 LLLLD -0.02 +0.08 0% 16.3
17 LA Breakers 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +0.46 -0.00 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.