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SLAMMERS FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+11 goal diff · 13–2
WWWWDlast 5
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 2.60 PPG
vs
Slammers FC HB Koge
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.8 against · 1.83 expected points)

Season so farSLAMMERS FCSlammers FC HB Koge
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-05-0-1
Points per game2.602.50
Goals for / game2.61.7
Goals against / game0.40.7
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W W WW W W W L
Biggest win4–0 at Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL3–0 at LA Breakers
Worst loss—1–2 at San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.27+0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.19-0.38

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Slammers FC HB Koge concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 27% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Slammers FC HB Koge have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Slammers FC HB Koge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SLAMMERS FC – Slammers FC HB Koge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.17 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

34% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 34%
  2. 2nd 42%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.67 (+0.07) 1st (2.41) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SLAMMERS FC to Slammers FC HB Koge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 4–0 0–2 0–1 2–2 6–1 0–3 4–0 2–0 1–2 2–1 4–1 SLAMMERS FC 2nd Pateadores Soccer C… 8th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 16th Beach Futbol Club G… 5th Legends FC - Del Mar 9th Rebels SC 14th LA Breakers 17th San Diego Surf 4th Slammers FC HB Koge 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM
Slammers FC HB Koge
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +6
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.83 2.47 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM
LA Breakers
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Orange County Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.53 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Eagles SC
6th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.63 2.42 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Sporting California USA
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 2.43 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LAFC
12th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.28 2.42 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.19 2.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.92 2.36 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
San Diego Surf
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–0 2.17 2.34 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Rebels SC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 2.35 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD
Blues
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -2
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.42 2.36 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD
Legends FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
0–1 1.12 2.28 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 6510 152+13 162.67 WWWWW -0.07 -0.16 99% 1.5
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 132+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.19 -0.05 97% 2.1
3 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 104+6 152.50 LWWWW -0.38 +0.10 69% 3.9
4 San Diego Surf 6402 129+3 122.00 WLLWW -0.02 -0.07 27% 5.9
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 117+4 71.75 WWLD +0.20 -0.13 41% 5.4
6 Eagles SC 5221 63+3 81.60 DWDLW +0.27 -0.22 38% 5.4
7 Arizona Arsenal 2101 32+1 31.50 WL +0.22 -0.08 18% 7.1
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 5203 64+2 61.20 LLWLW +0.03 -0.08 6% 8.4
9 Legends FC - Del Mar 6213 1011-1 71.17 LLWDL -0.02 -0.03 1% 11.0
10 Phoenix Rising FC 6213 911-2 71.17 WLWDL +0.03 -0.04 1% 10.4
11 Blues 3102 46-2 31.00 WLL +0.42 -0.11 2% 10.8
12 LAFC 5122 710-3 51.00 LWDDL +0.12 -0.07 0% 11.7
13 LV Heat Surf 3102 36-3 31.00 WLL +0.46 -0.10 1% 11.3
14 Rebels SC 4103 47-3 30.75 LLLW -0.37 +0.11 0% 13.3
15 Sporting California USA 4103 611-5 30.75 LLWL +0.56 -0.17 0% 12.0
16 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 214-12 10.20 LLLLD -0.02 +0.08 0% 16.3
17 LA Breakers 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +0.46 -0.00 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.