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Legends FC - Del Mar

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · Legends FC - Del Mar (all teams)

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9th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-1 goal diff · 10–11
LLWDLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.0
-0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Legends FC - Del Mar
9th · 1.17 PPG
at
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 1.20 PPG

Laguna Hills High School, Upper ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.7 against · 0.99 expected points)

Season so farLegends FC - Del MarPateadores Soccer Club
Position9th8th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-32-0-3
Points per game1.171.20
Goals for / game1.71.2
Goals against / game1.80.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L D W L LW L W L L
Biggest win4–1 vs Rebels SC4–0 vs LA Breakers
Worst loss0–3 vs Eagles SC0–1 at Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.18+0.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.02+0.03

Common opponents: SLAMMERS FC — we 0–2; they 0–1. Eagles SC — we 0–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–3 vs Eagles SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Laguna Hills High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Soccer Club sit 8th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC - Del Mar – Pateadores Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.14 PPG
10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 6
Win
1.43 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 11th▼ down 2
Draw
1.14 PPG
10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 6
Loss
1.00 PPG
10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
11.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.67 (+1.50) 1st (2.41) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+1.43) 2nd (2.28) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.50 (+1.33) 3rd (1.98) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf 2.00 (+0.83) 6th (1.72) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.75 (+0.58) 4th (1.78) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Eagles SC 1.60 (+0.43) 5th (1.77) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Arizona Arsenal 1.50 (+0.33) 7th (1.58) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.20 (+0.03) 8th (1.44) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC - Del Mar to Pateadores Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
4 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–0 0–3 1–0 3–1 3–3 1–2 1–2 2–1 1–0 2–1 4–1 1–2 2–2 0–4 0–1 1–1 Legends FC - Del Mar 9th SLAMMERS FC 2nd Eagles SC 6th Phoenix Rising FC 10th San Diego Surf 4th Rebels SC 14th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 16th LAFC 12th Slammers FC HB Koge 3rd Pateadores Soccer C… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +2
Away far trip
Laguna Hills High School
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.99 1.14 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM
Beach Futbol Club Gold
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Miramesa High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 1.13 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LA Breakers
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.45 1.28 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.29 Upside
Sun Apr 4
04:30 PM
Blues
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Tesoro High School - Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 1.30 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
LAFC
12th · 1-2-2 · GD -3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.36 1.30 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 0.99 1.28 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.52 1.22 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Sporting California USA
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.45 1.24 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.77 1.21 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 6510 152+13 162.67 WWWWW -0.07 -0.16 99% 1.5
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 132+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.19 -0.05 97% 2.1
3 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 104+6 152.50 LWWWW -0.38 +0.10 70% 3.9
4 San Diego Surf 6402 129+3 122.00 WLLWW -0.02 -0.07 27% 5.9
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 117+4 71.75 WWLD +0.20 -0.13 41% 5.4
6 Eagles SC 5221 63+3 81.60 DWDLW +0.27 -0.22 37% 5.4
7 Arizona Arsenal 2101 32+1 31.50 WL +0.22 -0.08 19% 7.2
8 Pateadores Soccer Club 5203 64+2 61.20 LLWLW +0.03 -0.08 6% 8.5
9 Legends FC - Del Mar 6213 1011-1 71.17 LLWDL -0.02 -0.03 1% 11.0
10 Phoenix Rising FC 6213 911-2 71.17 WLWDL +0.03 -0.04 1% 10.4
11 Blues 3102 46-2 31.00 WLL +0.42 -0.11 1% 10.9
12 LAFC 5122 710-3 51.00 LWDDL +0.12 -0.07 1% 11.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3102 36-3 31.00 WLL +0.46 -0.10 1% 11.3
14 Rebels SC 4103 47-3 30.75 LLLW -0.37 +0.11 0% 13.4
15 Sporting California USA 4103 611-5 30.75 LLWL +0.56 -0.17 0% 11.9
16 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 214-12 10.20 LLLLD -0.02 +0.08 0% 16.3
17 LA Breakers 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +0.46 -0.00 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.