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Sting Brave NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU15 · 22 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+10 goal diff · 13–3
WLWWWlast 5
39% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:40 AM

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Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 2.57 PPG
vs
Fever United FC NTX
16th · 0.75 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.5 for, 0.7 against · 2.74 expected points)

Season so farSting Brave NTXFever United FC NTX
Position3rd16th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-12-0-6
Points per game2.570.75
Goals for / game1.91.4
Goals against / game0.44.0
Clean sheets51
Held scoreless16
Form (recent first)W W W L WL L L W L
Biggest win3–0 vs Dallas Texans NTX8–0 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
Worst loss0–2 at Nido Dallas NTX0–12 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.09-1.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.33+0.60

Common opponents: Sting WTX NTX — we 1–0; they 0–7.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Fever United FC NTX concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Nido Dallas NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Fever United FC NTX have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    FRISCO FUSION NTX sit 2nd on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.57.

    A point moves us above FRISCO FUSION NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fever United FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Brave NTX – Fever United FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.63 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG
6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
39% top 4
61% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+0.43) 1st (2.79) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 2.57 (+0.00) 2nd (2.28) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Brave NTX to Fever United FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
0 favour them
+6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 7–0 1–0 0–1 2–0 4–0 1–3 2–1 0–3 1–1 4–0 0–2 2–1 3–0 3–2 1–0 5–0 3–0 0–3 0–3 3–0 0–1 12–0 Sting Brave NTX 3rd Sting WTX NTX 6th SOLAR WHITE NTX 10th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 14th Nido Dallas NTX 4th Dallas Texans NTX 15th FC Dallas Youth NTX 19th Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 9th Sting Royal NTX 11th DKSC WHITE NTX 22nd SOLAR BLUE NTX 12th FC Dallas Youth Red… 7th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 1st Fever United FC NTX 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.36 · 8th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
FRISCO FUSION NTX
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.39 2.42 Upside
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
Dallas Texans Red NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.75 2.35 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
11:40 AM
Fever United FC NTX
16th · 2-0-6 · GD -21
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.74 2.39 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +46
Away
Railroad Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.46 2.21 Upside
Thu Nov 5
06:30 PM
Sting Black NTX
5th · 5-2-0 · GD +19
Home
Railroad Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 2.16 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
07:00 PM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
8th · 4-2-1 · GD +6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–0 1.56 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:30 PM
SOLAR RED NTX
18th · 1-1-6 · GD -21
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
2–0 2.75 2.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
08:00 AM
DKSC NTX
17th · 1-1-5 · GD -9
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
1–0 2.34 2.17 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8800 460+46 243.00 WWWWW -1.03 +0.43 100% 1.1
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 7601 197+12 182.57 WWWWW -0.20 -0.51 62% 4.0
3 Sting Brave NTX 7601 133+10 182.57 WLWWW +0.33 +0.36 39% 5.2
4 Nido Dallas NTX 6501 175+12 152.50 WWWWW -0.08 -0.56 60% 4.2
5 Sting Black NTX 7520 278+19 172.43 WWDWW -1.21 +0.68 18% 6.7
6 Sting WTX NTX 8602 293+26 182.25 LWWLW -0.35 +0.85 50% 4.7
7 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7421 272+25 142.00 DWWWW -1.13 -0.27 66% 4.0
8 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7421 126+6 142.00 DWWWL +0.07 +0.32 2% 9.4
9 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 8503 1311+2 151.88 WLLLW +0.31 +0.38 1% 10.7
10 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5302 62+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.42 +0.05 1% 10.2
11 Sting Royal NTX 8413 1711+6 131.63 LWLLW -0.06 -0.67 1% 9.9
12 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7313 209+11 101.43 WWLDW -0.25 -0.43 1% 9.5
13 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5212 149+5 71.40 LWWDL -0.02 +0.51 0% 12.3
14 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 8215 814-6 70.88 WDWLL +0.79 -1.36 0% 13.6
15 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 716-9 60.86 LLLWW +0.15 -0.55 0% 14.9
16 Fever United FC NTX 8206 1132-21 60.75 LWLLL +0.60 +0.02 0% 17.2
17 DKSC NTX 7115 514-9 40.57 LLLDL -0.46 +1.00 0% 18.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 8116 324-21 40.50 WLDLL +0.26 +0.86 0% 19.8
19 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7106 826-18 30.43 LLLLL +0.44 -0.66 0% 16.9
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8107 839-31 30.38 LLLLL +1.12 -1.09 0% 17.8
21 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5005 034-34 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.43 0% 21.5
22 DKSC WHITE NTX 6006 237-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 -0.42 0% 20.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.